Month: March 2025

— Final Four by seed, the last five tournaments:
2024- 1-1-4-11 (NC State was #11)
2023- 4-5-5-9 (Florida Atlantic was #9)
2022- 1-2-2-8 (North Carolina was #8)
2021- 1-1-2-11 (UCLA was #11)
2019- 1-2-3-5

Last five tournaments, only six #1-seeds made the Final Four

— Final Four by conference, the last five tournaments:
2024- ACC, Big East, Big 18, SEC
2023- ACC, Big East, C-USA, Mountain West
2022- ACC (2), Big East, Big X
2021- AAC, Big X, Pac-12, WCC
2019- ACC, Big 18, Big X, SEC

5- ACC
3- Big East, Big X
2- Big 18, SEC
1- AAC, C-USA, Mountain West, Pac-12, WCC

First round trends…….
— Last four years, #1-seeds are 9-7 ATS in first round games.

— Last three years, #2-seeds are 8-4 ATS

A #2-seed has been upset in first round in three of last four years.

— Last five years, #3-seeds are 13-7 ATS.

Last seven years, only 2 of 28 #3-seeds lost in first round.

— Last six years, underdogs are 16-8 ATS in 4-13 first round games.

— Last five years, underdogs are 11-9 ATS in 5-12 games.

— Last six years, the underdog is 6-0 SU/ATS in the 6-11 game in the Midwest region; this year, #6-seed Illinois will play the Texas-Xavier play-in winner.

— Last six years, underdogs are 14-10 SU/20-4 ATS in 8-9 games.

— Famous birthdays, March 18
Jeff Mullins, 83
Dwayne Murphy, 70
Vanessa Williams, 62
Pat Terrell, 57
Andre Rison, 57

Rob Johnson, 52
Brian Griese, 50
Adam Levine, 46
JT Realmuto, 34
Trey Mancini, 33

Conference trends:
— Last three years, ACC teams are 11-4 ATS in first round
Since 2018, ACC teams are 18-8 ATS in second round.

— No team from the A-15 has made the Sweet 16 since Dayton in 2014.

— Last three years, Big East teams are 9-5 ATS in first round
Last three years, Big East had a team in Final Four (Villanova-UConn-UConn)

— Since 2006, Big Sky teams are 0-17 SU/3-13-1 ATS in first round games.
Last Big Sky team to win an NCAA game: Montana 87, Nevada 79 in 2006.

— Last three years, Big 18 teams are 13-8-1 ATS in first round
Last four years, Big 18 teams are 9-12 ATS in second round.

Last four years, only one Big 18 team made the Final Four (Purdue LY)

Last Big 18 team to win a national title? Michigan State, in 2000.

— Since 2019, Big X teams are 21-11 ATS in first round
Since 2021, Big X teams are 6-16 ATS in second round

— Since 2015, Big West teams are 7-3 ATS in first round

— Since 2013, CAA teams are 0-11 SU/5-6 ATS in first round
Last five years, CAA teams are 0-5 ATS

— Since 2015, U-USA teams are 6-3 ATS in first round

— Last three years, Horizon teams are 5-0 ATS in play-in/first round games.

— Since 2010, Ivy League teams are 10-3 ATS in first round.

— Since 2010, MAAC teams are 3-12 ATS in first round (3-2 in last five)

— Since 2017, MAC teams are 6-2 ATS in first round

— Last three years, MVC teams were 0-3 ATS in first round
From 2013-21, MVC teams were 11-3 ATS in first round

— Since 2019, Mountain West teams are 3-14 SU/2-15 ATS in first round

— Last three years, SEC teams are 9-12 ATS in first round
Since 2016, SEC teams are 11-18 ATS in second round

— Last six years, SoCon teams are 5-1 ATS in first round.

— Last five years, WAC teams are 2-3 SU?5-0 ATS in first roun

We’ll get into the games more as the week goes on, but here are some quick thoughts, facts after seeing the brackets/Field of 68.

— #8-seeds are a prominent group: UConn, Gonzaga, Louisville, Mississippi State.

How would you like to be a #1-seed and see the two-time champ Huskies in your bracket? 

Auburn-Louisville would be in Lexington, KY; Bruce Pearl must be thrilled with that, though that game being an afternoon tip-off probably helps Auburn a little bit.

Gonzaga has made nine straight Sweet 16’s; they’re going to have to upset Houston to make it ten in a row.

— Brackets came out out between 6-7 pm; Maryland coach Kevin Willard was on a CBS brackets show at 8:30- he said his team had already had a film session on Grand Canyon, their first round opponent in Seattle Friday.

These teams don’t waste any time studying their opponents.

— Iowa State point guard Keshon Gilbert is out for the NCAA Tournament; he missed four of the Cyclones’ last seven games, and Iowa State went 1-3 in those games.

— Clemson-McNeese State is a first round game; McNeese coach Will Wade was a student manager at Clemson, later a grad assistant coach there.

Wade’s Wikipedia page says that he is the new coach at NC State, which might be wishful thinking by whoever posted that note.

— Teams that played on Sunday who have a tournament game this Thursday:
VCU, Yale, Michigan, Wisconsin, all in Denver, in high altitude. Tennessee plays in Kentucky.

Sunday/Thursday is a quick turnaround, especially if a lot of travel is involved.

— Arkansas-Kansas; John Calipari vs Bill Self, with the winner probably playing against Rick Pitino’s St John’s team. Lot of Hall of Famers in that bracket. 

St John’s hasn’t won an NCAA Tournament game since 2000, which is also the last time they won the Big East tournament (before this week).

— With no Pac-12 this season or next, there was an extra at-large bid this season; two years from now, the Pac-12 will be back, and the tournament will have one fewer at-large team. 

— Famous birthdays, March 17th:
Cito Gaston, 81
Patrick Duffy, 75
Kurt Russell, 74
Gary Sinise, 70

Danny Ainge, 66
Arye Gross, 65
Sam Bowie, 64
Rob Lowe, 61

Kyle Korver, 44
Juan Lagares, 36
Cordarrelle Patterson, 34
Rhys Hoskins, 32

— 14 of 16 SEC teams made the tournament; Texas was the lowest ranked of the 14- they play Xavier in a play-in game in Dayton.

— #1-seeds won 17 of the 31 conference tournaments this year.

Some trends on conferences in the NCAA’s:
— Since 2019, Mountain West teams are 3-14 SU/2-15 ATS in first round games.

New Mexico, Utah State, Colorado State, San Diego State are in this year’s tournament.

— Since 2010, Ivy League teams are 10-3 ATS in first round games; Yale is a 7.5-point underdog against Texas A&M Thursday.

— CAA teams are 0-11 SU in the last 11 NCAA Tournaments, 0-5 ATS in the last five. NC-Wilmington is a 15.5-point underdog against Texas Tech Thursday night.

— Big West teams are 7-3 ATS in their last ten first round games; the last five years, five different schools have represented the Big West.

Was surprised to see that Cal-San Diego is only a 3.5-point underdog vs Michigan in their first round game. This is the first year the Tritons were eligible for March Madness- they’re 30-4 and have won their last 15 games. They’re 3-2 vs teams ranked in the top 100.

— There must be a lot of $$$ involved with the advertising involved in these bracket pools; ESPN pushes their contest pretty hard.

— I’m off to do more studying; will be back tomorrow with some more knowledge. 

Lot of conference tournaments going on; here is what we know:

— SEC
Alabama 99, Kentucky 70
Crimson Tide outscored Kentucky 54-35 in second half.
Alabama had three subs score in double figures
Crimson Tide is shooting 59.9% inside the arc (#3)

Auburn 62, Ole Miss 57
Fewest points Auburn has scored since January 25 vs Tennessee
Game was tied with 6:26 left; then Auburn went on a 10-1 run.
Teams shot a combined 10-44 on the arc.

Saturday’s semi-finals:
Auburn-Tennessee…….Florida-Alabama

— Big X
Arizona 86, Texas Tech 80
Caleb Love scored 27 points for Arizona.
Wildcats shot 8-16 on the arc, scored 1.26 points/possession.
Texas Tech’s best player was sick, barfing during timeouts. 

Saturday’s final: Arizona-Houston

— ACC
Duke 74, North Carolina 71
Duke star Flagg didn’t play, is done for the weekend.
Duke led 45-24 at halftime.
Teams combined to shoot 8-39 on the arc.
Blue Devils are 26-1 since Thanksgiving.

Louisville 76, Clemson 73
Cardinals led 69-54 with 3:24 left, held on for dear life.
Lousiville’s wins last two nights were by 2-3 points.
Cardinals have won 11 games in a row.
Loss snaps Clemson’s nine-game winning streak.

Duke-Louisville is Saturday’s ACC final

— Big East
St John’s 79, Marquette 63
6-9 Ejiofor scored 33 points, had nine rebounds.
Marquette led 24-9 early on, 37-35 at halftime.
Marquette is 5-7 in its last 12 games.
St John’s is in Big East final for first time in 25 years.

Creighton 71, UConn 62
Bluejays had only 4 turnovers, scored 1.27 points/possession.
Creighton was 13-18 on foul line, UConn 2-4
Creighton is shooting 60.6% inside arc (#1 in country)

St John’s-Creighton is the Big East final Saturday

— Big 18
All four games Friday were decided by 10+ points. 

Wisconsin 86, UCLA 70
Badgers shot 19-32 on arc, 12-17 in first half.
UCLA split its last eight games.

Saturday’s semi-finals:
Wisconsin-Michigan State
Michigan-Maryland

— Mountain West
Boise State 72, New Mexico 69
#1-seed New Mexico led 34-28 at halftime.
Boise State shot 64% inside the arc.
Broncos won 11 of their last 13 games.

Saturday’s final is Boise State-Colorado State

— Big West
Cal-San Diego 69, Cal-Santa Barbara 51
Gauchos led 27-26 at halftime.
Cal-San Diego shot 62.5% inside the arc.
Tritons have won their last 14 games. 

Saturday’s final is Cal-San Diego/Cal-Irvine.

— Famous birthdays, March 15th:
Judd Hirsch, 90
Mike Kruczek, 72
Clay Matthews, 69
Stump Mitchell, 66

Harold Baines, 66
Terry Cummings, 64
Eva Longoria, 50
Kevin Youkilis, 46

Tavon Austin, 35
Nick Ahmed, 35
Taylor Heinicke, 32
Matt Gay, 31

— American
Memphis 83, Wichita State 80
Wichita led 20-10 early in the game.
PJ Haggerty scored 42 points, shot 16-23 inside arc.
Tigers have won six in row, 14 of last 15 games.

Bubble teams all over America are rooting for Memphis; if they lose in this tournament, whoever wins AAC tournament would be a bid stealer. 

Saturday’s semi-finals:
Memphis-Tulane…….North Texas-UAB

— MAC
Miami OH 72, Kent State 64
Kent State led by a hoop with 4:57 left to play.
Golden Flashes were only 11-21 on the foul line.
Miami is 19-4 in its last 23 games.

Saturday’s final is #1-seed Akron vs Miami.

— Atlantic 15
St Joe’s 73, Dayton 68 OT
Dayton led by 4 with 0:18 left in regulation.
St Joe’s was 20-28 on foul line, Flyers 7-11.
Hawks have won seven of their last eight games.

Saturday’s semi-finals: Saint Louis-VCU…….St Joe’s-George Mason

— Conference USA
Jacksonville State 70, Middle Tennessee 68
Middle Tennessee played a 2pm game, after playing a 2OT game Thursday nite
Blue Raiders shot 11-24 on arc, but were only 9-17 on foul line.
Jax State senior G Pierre played all 40:00, scored 19 points.

Saturday’s final: #1-seed Liberty vs Jacksonville State

— WAC
Grand Canyon 75, Cal Baptist 66
Grand Canyon led 25-16 at half; 2nd half had a faster pace.
Grand Canyon is trying to win WAC tourney for third year in a row.
Antelopes have won eight of their last nine games.

Saturday’s final: Utah Valley-Grand Canyon

— Metro Atlantic
Iona 81, Quinnipiac 73
Iona shot 59.2% inside arc, upsets top-seeded Quinnipiac
Iona has been in six of last eight NCAA tournaments.
Quinnipiac shot 9-29 on arc; for year, they’re shooting 29.8% on arc (#346)

Saturday’s final: Iona-Mount St Mary’s