Games are analyzed, all season long, right thru BCS title game
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Notes on football teams in the SEC:
— Alabama
Last five years, Alabama is 37-26 (58.7%) against spread.
New QB Simpson threw only 25 passes as the backup LY.
Had only 25 sacks last year, their fewest since 2013.
— Arkansas
Arkansas has only 3 starters back on offense, 3 more on defense.
Hogs gained 459.5 yards/game last year, #10 in country.
Arkansas allowed 246.9 passing yards/game (#110)
— Auburn
Auburn scored only 19.1 ppg in its SEC games (2-6) last year
Tigers had a minus-9 turnover ratio (#119)
Auburn was 1-3 LY in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
— Florida
Six starters back on offense, seven on defense, a lot for an SEC team.
Gators have four starters back on the offensive line.
Florida was helped last year by its +6 turnover ratio (#35)
— Georgia
Last two years, Dawgs are only 9-17 ATS
Georgia has only seven of 22 starters back from LY.
Dawgs ran ball for only 124.4 yards/game LY, #102 in country.
— Kentucky
Wildcats have only 3 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Kentucky missed a bowl LY for first time in nine years.
Wildcats threw ball for only 184.8 yards/game LY (#112)
— LSU
Only six of 22 starters are back, only one on offensive line.
Gave up 364.4 yards/game LY, #61 in country. Mediocre.
QB Nussmeier is in his 5th year; his dad is the Saints’ offensive coordinator.
— Ole Miss
Lane Kiffin has a 44-18 record in five years with the Rebels.
Ole Miss has only five of 22 starters back this year.
Rebels scored 38.6 ppg LY, #3 in country.
— Mississippi State
Bulldogs were 2-10 LY, including a 41-17 home loss to Toledo.
Miss State allowed 216.9 rushing yards/game (#129)
Bulldogs have only three starters back on defense.
— Missouri
Tigers have 7 starters back on defense, only 4 on offense.
Mizzou allowed only 317.5 yards/game LY, #17 in country.
Tigers don’t play a road game until October 18, at Auburn.
— Oklahoma
Sooners have a new OC, who is 29; he brought the QB from Wazzu with him.
Oklahoma gained only 331 yards/game LY, #113 in country.
Oklahoma has only three starters back on offense.
— South Carolina
Gamecocks allowed only 18.1 ppg LY, #12 in country.
South Carolina has a new punter, kicker, long snapper, holder for kicks.
Gamecocks haven’t won a league title since they won the ACC in 1969.
— Tennessee
New QB Aguilar is a transfer from Appalachian State, via UCLA.
Aguilar threw for 6,700+ yards, 56 TD’s in two years at App State.
Vols have 7 starters back from a defense that allowed 16.1 ppg LY (#7 in country)
— Texas
Only 3 starters back on offense; Arch Manning is the new QB.
Texas ranked 71st in country in rushing yards LY; they’ve got 4 new starters on OL
First 4 weeks in October; three road games, and the Oklahoma game in Dallas.
— Texas A&M
Have six starters back on offense, seven on defense.
Aggies ran ball for 195.5 yards/game LY (#26); they’ve got 4 starters back on OL
A&M lost four of last four games LY, after a 7-1 start.
— Vanderbilt
Last year’s 7-6 season was their best since 2013.
Vandy brought in six transfers who play on OL, to protect QB Pavia.
Someone offered Pavia $4M to bolt to their school; he declined the offer.
2024 college football
— Conference bowl records (SU/ATS)
AAC 6-2 SU/7-1 ATS
ACC 2-11 SU/1-12 ATS
Big 18 10-5 SU/12-3 ATS
Big X 3-5 SU/3-5 ATS
C-USA 1-4 SU/1-4 ATS
MAC 5-2 SU/5-1-1 ATS
M West 1-4 SU/1-4 ATS
SEC 7-6 SU/6-7 ATS
Sun Belt 4-3 SU/2-4-1 ATS
Favorites: 21-20-1 ATS
Totals: over 21-21
Monday’s game
National Championship game (@ Atlanta)
Notre Dame vs Ohio State (-8.5)
Notre Dame (14-1)
Notre Dame won its last 13 games, covered last 11.
Notre Dame’s only loss was 16-14 at home to Northern Illinois.
Notre Dame is 2-1 in games decided by less than 10 points.
Irish have 6 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Notre Dame has 34 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Leonard started 21 games at Duke.
Notre Dame held 12 of 15 opponents to 17 or fewer points.
Notre Dame is 7-0 ATS in games with a single digit spread.
Last three games, Notre Dame ran ball for 154 yards/game.
Last eight games, Notre Dame is +13 in turnovers.
Notre Dame won its last five bowl games, by 7-32-10-13-3 points.
Over is 7-4 in their last eleven games.
Ohio State (13-2)
Ohio State won three in row, eight of their last nine games.
Buckeyes scored 42-41-28 points in first three playoff games.
Buckeyes’ two losses: 32-31 Oregon/13-10 Michigan
Ohio State has 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Buckeyes have 103 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Howard stated 33 games at Kansas State.
Buckeyes are 9-6 ATS as a favorite this year.
Under Day, OSU is 40-26-3 ATS as a favorite.
Oregon (496)/Texas (341) are only teams to gain more than 276 yards vs OSU.
Buckeyes are 8-9-1 ATS in last 18 non-conference games.
Under is 7-4 in their last eleven games.
Ohio State’s last six wins were all by 14+ points.
Ohio State beat Notre Dame the last two years, 17-14/21-10.
Favorites covered last five national championship games.
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