2025 NFL
Week 12
Thursday’s game
Bills (-6) @ Texans
Bills (7-3)
Buffalo scored 28+ points in wins, 20-14-13 in losses.
Buffalo is +6 in turnovers in wins, minus-5 in losses.
Bills have five wins by 10+ points.
QB Allen is 90-43 as an NFL starter.
McDermott is 99-55 as an NFL head coach.
Bills are 20-16 ATS last 36 games as a road favorite (2-2 TY).
Last four games, Bills converted 25 of 50 third down plays.
Bills are 33-27-2 ATS in last 62 games coming off a win.
Buffalo is 7-0 when they score more than 20 points.
Last two games, Buffalo gave up 30-32 points, won both games.
AFC East favorites are 7-4 ATS in non-divisional games.
Texans (5-5)
Houston is 5-2 in last seven games, after an 0-3 start.
Texans are 4-0 when they score 20+ points.
QB Stroud (concussion) is out for this game.
Backup QB Mills is 7-19-1 as an NFL starter.
Ryans is 27-21 in as an NFL head coach.
Texans are 4-3 ATS last seven as a home underdog.
Texans are 10-10-1 ATS last 21 games coming off a win.
Texans gained 353+ yards in wins, 271 or fewer yards in losses.
Houston is 3-0 in games decided by 11+ points, 2-5 in games decided by 8 or less.
Texans held seven of last eight opponents under 300 total yards.
AFC South underdogs are 9-7 ATS in non-divisional games.
Texans won six of last eight series games.
Bills are 0-5 SU/1-4 ATS in last five visits to Houston.
Under is 6-1 in last seven meetings.
Sunday’s games
Colts vs Chiefs (-3.5)
Colts (8-2)
Colts are 8-0 scoring 29+ points (20-20 in losses)
Indy is minus-7 in turnovers in losses, +9 in wins.
Colts’ team total: over 8-2
QB Jones is 33-47-1 is as an NFL starter.
Steichen is 25-19 SU as a head coach
Colts won five of their last six games SU.
Under Steichen, Colts are 12-11 ATS as an underdog.
Colts allowed 24+ points in four of last five games.
Colts are 3-2 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
Last 20 years, Colts are 15-5 SU/15-4-1 ATS in post-bye games.
AFC South underdogs are 5-12 ATS in non-divisional games.
Chiefs (5-5)
Chiefs won/covered their last four home games.
Chiefs are 5-1 giving up 20 or less points, 0-4 giving up 21+.
Chiefs are 0-5 in games decided by 7 or less points.
QB Mahomes is 111-31 as an NFL starter.
Andy Reid is 306-168-1 as an NFL head coach
Chiefs are 5-5 for first time since 2015.
Chiefs are 3-0 ATS as a home favorite this year.
Chiefs are 9-5 ATS last 14 games coming off a loss.
Last two games, Chiefs ran ball for only 70-62 yards.
Under is 5-0 in last five Kansas City games.
AFC West home underdogs are 7-4 ATS in non-divisional games.
Colts won seven of last ten series games.
Indy won five of last seven visits to Arrowhead.
Under is 6-0 in last six meetings.
Steelers @ Bears (-2.5)
Steelers (6-4)
Pittsburgh lost three of its last five games.
Steelers are 5-0 when they allow less than 25 points.
Pittsburgh is +14 in turnovers in its wins, minus-6 in losses.
Rodgers (left wrist) is ???; backup Rudolph is 9-9-1 as an NFL QB
QB Rodgers is 170-101-1 as an NFL QB
Tomlin is 197-122-2 as an NFL head coach.
Steelers are 18-13 ATS last 31 games as a road underdog.
Pittsburgh is 17-12-1 ATS last 30 games coming off a win.
Steelers allowed 32-31-35-25 points in their four losses.
Steelers went over their team total six of last seven games.
Pittsburgh is 23-16-1 ATS in last 40 games with spread of 3 or less points.
AFC North underdogs are 5-11 ATS in non-divisional games.
Bears (6-3)
Bears won three in row, seven of last eight games.
Bears are 5-0 scoring 25+ points, 2-3 otherwise.
In wins, Chicago was +19 in turnovers; minus-3 in losses.
Ben Johnson is 7-3 as an NFL head coach.
QB Williams is 12-15 as an NFL starter.
Chicago is 9-5-1 ATS last 15 games as a home favorite.
Chicago is 9-15-1 ATS in last 25 games coming off a win.
Bears are 6-0 when they allow less than 27 points.
Bears are 5-0 in games decided by 5 or fewer points.
Chicago is 7-9-1 last 17 games vs AFC opponents.
NFC North favorites are 10-8 ATS in non-divisional games.
Home team won four of last five series games.
Steelers lost 23-17/17-14 in last two visits to Chicago.
Under is 3-2 in last five meetings.
Patriots (-7) @ Bengals
Patriots (9-2)
Patriots won their last eight games (7-1 ATS).
Patriots were held to 13-14 points in their losses.
Opponents’ team total: under 8-1 last nine
QB Maye is 12-11 as an NFL starter.
Vrabel is 65-50 as an NFL head coach.
Patriots are 8-3-1 ATS last 12 games as a road favorite.
NE is 11-9-2 ATS in last 22 games coming off a win.
Patriots held five of six foes under 300 total yards.
Over is 4-1 in their last five games.
NFC East favorites are 7-4 ATS in non-divisional games.
Bengals (3-7)
Bengals lost three in row, seven of last eight games.
Last four games, Bengals allowed 37.8 ppg.
Over is 7-3 in Cincinnati games this season.
Flacco is 117-99 as an NFL starter.
Taylor is 54-61-1 as a head coach.
Cincinnati is 1-3 ATS last four games as home underdogs.
Bengals are 24-16-1 ATS last 41 games coming off a loss.
Bengals converted 29-63 3rd down plays with Flacco at QB.
Last two games, Bengals are minus-5 in turnovers.
NFC North underdogs are 5-11 ATS in non-divisional games.
New England won eight of last ten series games.
Patriots won/covered four of last five visits to Cincinnati.
Over is 3-2 in last five meetings.
Jets @ Ravens (-13.5)
Jets (2-8)
Jets are 0-6 when they score less than 27 points.
Five of Jets’ eight losses were by 7 or fewer points.
Four of last five games, Jets gained less than 250 total yards.
Taylor is 28-30-1 as an NFL starter.
Aaron Glenn is 2-8 as a head coach.
Jets are 4-9-1 ATS last 14 games as a road underdog
Jets are 10-17-1 ATS last 28 games coming off a loss.
Last two games, Jets threw for 42/105 yards.
Jets are minus-11 in turnovers this season.
AFC East underdogs are 10-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
Ravens (5-5)
Baltimore won its last four games, scoring 27 ppg
Baltimore gave up 14.3 ppg in those games
Last four games, Ravens were +5 in turnovers.
QB Jackson is 77-32 as an NFL starter
John Harbaugh is 190-120 as an NFL head coach.
Ravens are 12-8 ATS last 20 games as a home favorite.
Ravens are 16-12 ATS last 28 games coming off a win.
Baltimore is 0-4 when they allow more than 19 points.
Last three weeks, opponents converted 7-40 third down plays.
AFC North favorites are 6-8 ATS in non-divisional games.
Ravens won nine of last ten series games.
Jets are 0-6 SU/1-5 ATS last six visits to Baltimore.
Under is 5-2-1 in last eight meetings.
Seahawks (-13.5) @ Titans
Seahawks (7-3)
Seahawks are 7-2 SU/8-1 ATS in last nine games.
Seattle’s three losses were by 3-4-2 points.
Seahawks held 7 of last 9 opponents under 300 TY.
Darnold is 42-42 as an NFL starter.
MacDonald is 17-10 as a head coach.
Seattle has four wins by 14+ points.
In losses, Seahawks are minus-5 in turnovers; in wins, +2.
Seattle is 5-4-2 ATS in last 11 games as a road favorite.
Seattle is 10-7 ATS in last 17 games coming off a loss.
Seahawks are 12-8-2 last 22 games vs AFC teams.
Opponents’ team total: under 7-2-1
Titans (1-9)
Tennessee is 0-5 SU/2-3 ATS in last five games.
Titans are 2-3 ATS as a home underdog this year.
Interim coach McCoy was 28-38 coaching Chargers from 2013-16.
Rookie QB Ward is 1-9 as an NFL starter.
Titans have five losses by 14+ points.
Titans were held under 300 TY in eight of ten games.
Titans are 1-6 ATS in last seven games vs NFC teams.
Tennessee is 4-15-1 ATS last 20 games coming off a loss.
Titans are 6-15 ATS in last 21 games as an underdog.
Over is 6-3 in their last nine games.
AFC South underdogs are 9-7 ATS in non-divisional games.
Teams split last six series games.
Underdogs are 4-1-1 ATS in those games.
Seattle won two of last three visits to Nashville.
Under is 3-2 in last five meetings.
Vikings @ Packers (-6)
Vikings (4-6)
Vikings lost four of their last five games.
Last six games, Minnesota is minus-11 in turnovers.
3 of last 4 games, Minnesota gained less than 270 yards.
McCarthy is 2-3 as an NFL starter.
O’Connell is 38-24 as an NFL head coach.
Vikings are 5-3 ATS last eight games as a road underdog.
Under O’Connell, Vikings are 6-4-1 ATS in NFC North road games.
Vikings are 8-10-1 ATS in last 19 games coming off a loss.
Six of last eight Minnesota games went over the total.
Last four games, Vikings converted only 13 of 48 third down plays.
Packers (6-3-1)
Green Bay is 6-0-1 when it scores 27+ points, 0-3 otherwise.
Green Bay scored 10-13-7 points in its losses.
Packers held seven of ten opponents under 300 TY.
QB Love is 25-20-1 as an NFL starter
LaFleur is 76-41-1 as an NFL head coach.
Packers are 11-12-1 ATS last 24 games as a home favorite.
Packers are 25-19-1 ATS last 45 games coming off a win.
Green Bay is 2-5 ATS in last seven NFC North home games.
Opponents’ team total: over 5-2 last seven games.
NFL-wide, home favorites are 15-10 ATS in divisional games.
Minnesota won four of last five series games.
Vikings won 31-29/24-10 in last two visits to Lambeau.
Over is 7-2-1 in last ten meetings.
Giants @ Lions (-10)
Giants (2-9)
Giants lost last five games, fired their coach last week.
Giants allowed 18-17 points in wins, 21+ points in losses.
Giants are 1-4 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
Winston is 36-52 as an NFL starter; rookie Dart is 2-5.
Dart (concussion) missed LW’s game; check status.
OC Kafka is the interim coach, is calling plays.
Giants are 9-12 ATS last 21 games as a road underdog
Giants are 20-18 ATS in last 38 games coming off a loss.
Giants went over team total in five of Dart’s seven starts.
Five of Giants’ last six games went over the total.
Giants are +4 in turnovers in wins, minus-10 in losses.
NFC East underdogs are 5-10 ATS in non-divisional games.
Lions (6-4)
Detroit lost three of last five games, after a 4-1 start.
Lions are 1-4 when they score less than 34 points.
Detroit was held to 13-17-24-9 points in its losses.
QB Goff is 91-61-1 as an NFL starter, 49-34-1 with Detroit.
Campbell is 53-41-1 as an NFL head coach.
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Lions are 17-9 ATS last 26 games as a home favorite.
Lions held last three foes to 251/258/288/272 total yards.
Detroit is 10-0 ATS last 10 games coming off a loss
Detroit has five wins this year by 13+ points.
Last nine games, Lions are +6 in turnovers.
NFC North favorites are 11-9 ATS in non-divisional games.
Lions won last three series games, by 13-5-14 points.
Giants lost 31-26/35-14 in last two visits to Ford Field.
Over is 3-2 in last five meetings.
Jaguars (-3) @ Cardinals
Jaguars (6-4)
Jacksonville lost three of last five games, after a 4-1 start.
Last three weeks, Jaguars scored 30-29-35 points.
Jacksonville is 4-3 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
QB Lawrence is 29-43 as an NFL starter.
Liam Coen is 6-4 as an NFL head coach.
Jaguars were +9 in turnovers first four games, minus-1 since then
Since 2020, Jaguars are 5-6 ATS as a road favorite.
Jaguars are 15-14 ATS in last 29 games coming off a win.
Jaguars held 7 of last 9 opponents under 100 yards rushing.
Jaguars are 6-0 when they run for 100 yards, 0-4 when they don’t.
AFC South favorites are 4-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
Cardinals (3-7)
Cardinals lost seven of their last eight games.
Last two games, Arizona gave up 44-41 points.
Cardinals lost last four home games, by 3-1-4-19 points.
Brissett is 20-38 as an NFL starter.
Gannon is 15-29 as an NFL head coach.
Seven of ten Arizona games were decided by 7 or fewer points,
Cardinals are 8-5 ATS last 13 games as a home underdog.
Under Gannon, Arizona is 20-12 ATS as an underdog.
Arizona is 23-16 ATS in last 39 games coming off a loss.
Cardinals are 9-3 ATS in last 12 games vs AFC teams.
Cardinals won/covered last four series games.
Teams split last four meetings in Arizona.
Under is 3-2 in last five meetings.
Browns @ Raiders (-4)
Browns (2-8)
Rookie QB Sanders makes first NFL start here.
Home teams are 9-0 ATS in Cleveland games this year.
Browns are 0-8 when they allow more than 10 points.
Sanders was 4-16/47 passing off the bench last week.
Stefanski is 43-56 as a head coach.
Browns are 1-6 SU/2-5 ATS in last seven games.
Browns are 0-6 SU/ATS on the road this year.
Cleveland is 8-20-1 ATS last 29 games as a road underdog.
Browns are 7-13 ATS in last 20 games coming off a loss.
Cleveland gained less than 280 yards in seven of last eight games.
Last six games, Browns are 1-5, despite being +9 in turnovers.
Raiders (2-7)
How are the Raiders favored over anyone?
Raiders lost four games in a row, seven of last eight.
Raiders allowed 13-10 points in their wins
Last four games, Raiders ran the ball for only 49.2 yards/game.
QB Geno Smith is 42-52 as an NFL starter.
Carroll is 183-139-1 as an NFL head coach.
Raiders are 1-4 SU at home TY, with two one-point losses.
Raiders are 8-3 ATS last 11 games as a favorite.
Las Vegas is 11-4 ATS last 15 games as a home favorite.
Raiders are 12-15-1 ATS in last 28 games coming off a loss.
Las Vegas is 1-3 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
Raiders are 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS in last five series games.
Cleveland lost four of last five road series games.
Under is 5-2 in last seven meetings.
Falcons @ Saints (-1.5)
Falcons (3-7)
Atlanta lost its last five games, last three by 1-6-3 points.
Last four games, Falcons allowed 29.8 points/game.
Last two games, Atlanta gave up 519/486 yards.
QB Cousins is 84-78-2 as an NFL starter.
Morris is 32-54 as a head coach.
Atlanta is 4-8 ATS last 12 games as a road underdog.
Falcons are 9-13-1 ATS last 23 games coming off a loss.
Atlanta is 7-6 ATS in last 13 NFC South road games.
Four of last five games, Falcons were held under 300 total yards.
Over is 3-0 in last three Atlanta games.
Saints (2-8)
Saints lost four of their last five games.
Saints are +6 in turnovers in wins, minus-9 in losses.
Saints allowed 14-7 points in their two wins
26-year old rookie QB Shough is 1-1 as an NFL starter.
Kellen Moore is 2-8 as a head coach.
Saints are 7-8 ATS last 15 games as a home favorite.
Saints are 10-17-2 ATS in last 29 games coming off a win.
In five of last six games, Saints ran ball for less than 90 yards.
Saints are 0-3 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
Saints are 3-3 SU/0-6 ATS in last six post-bye games.
Saints won 10 of last 14 series games.
Falcons are 1-4 SU/2-3 ATS in last five visits to Bourbon Street.
Under is 5-3 in last eight meetings.
Eagles (–3.5) @ Cowboys
Eagles (8-2)
Eagles are 6-0 when they score 20+ points.
Eagles held last three opponents to 278 yards/game.
Eagles were held to 17 points in both their losses.
QB Hurts is 59-25 as an NFL starter.
Sirianni is 61-25 as an NFL coach.
Eagles are 7-3 ATS last 10 games as a road favorite.
Philly is 14-6 ATS in last 20 games coming off a win.
Last two weeks, opponents scored only two TD’s on 22 drives.
Last two weeks, Eagles gained only 294/272 yards.
Eagles are 4-11-1 ATS in last 16 NFC East road games.
Cowboys (4-5-1)
Short week for Cowboys after Monday’s win in Las Vegas.
Dallas is minus-9 in turnovers in losses, +4 in wins.
Dallas is 0-5 scoring less than 33 points.
QB Prescott is 82-56-1 as an NFL starter.
Brian Schottenheimer is 4-5-1 as a head coach.
Cowboys are 11-6 ATS last 17 games as a road underdog.
Cowboys are 3-7 ATS last 10 games coming off a win.
Dallas is 11-3 ATS in last 14 NFC East home games.
Over is 6-1 in their last seven games.
NFL-wide, home underdogs are 8-7 ATS in divisional games.
Eagles (-6.5) beat Dallas 24-20 at home in season opener.
Philly won five of last six series games.
Last year, Eagles snapped a six-game losing skid at Dallas.
Over is 6-3 in last nine series games.
Buccaneers @ Rams (-5.5)
Buccaneers (6-4)
Tampa Bay lost three of its last four games.
Bucs are 4-0 giving up less than 24 points, 2-4 giving up 24+.
Last nine games, Tampa Bay is +9 in turnovers.
Mayfield is 58-60 as an NFL starter, 26-21 with the Bucs.
Mayfield started four games for the Rams in 2022.
Bowles is 60-72 as a head coach, 34-31 with Tampa Bay.
Tampa Bay is 13-4 ATS last 17 games as a road underdog.
Bucs are 12-4-1 ATS in last 17 games coming off a loss.
Last two games, Bucs gave up 435/414 total yards.
Bucs are 4-2 in games decided by six or fewer points.
Under is 4-2 in Tampa Bay’s road games.
Rams (8-2)
Rams won last five games, allowing 3-7-10-26-19 points.
Rams are 7-0 when they allow less than 26 points.
Last five games, Rams are +9 in turnovers.
QB Stafford is 47-27 as the Rams’ starter (121-120-1 overall).
McVay is 96-59 as an NFL head coach.
Last six games, Rams outscored opponents 95-35 in first half.
In their losses, Rams allowed 33-26 points.
Rams are 16-8 ATS in last 24 games as a favorite.
Rams went over team total in six of last nine games.
Rams are 16-9-1 ATS in last 26 games coming off a win.
Rams won eight of last ten series games.
Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU/ATS in last five visits to LA
Over is 5-1 in last six meetings.
Panthers @ 49ers (-7)
Panthers (6-5)
Carolina won five of its last seven games.
Panthers are 5-1 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
Carolina is +3 in turnovers in wins, minus-7 in losses
QB Young is 12-26 as an NFL starter.
Canales is 11-17 as a head coach.
Panthers are 8-14-1 ATS last 23 games as a road underdog.
Carolina is 9-11 ATS in last 20 games coming off a win.
Carolina is 2-4 when it allows more than 24 points.
Panthers are 4-0 when they score more than 22 points.
Three of last four games, Carolina was held under 270 total yards.
49ers (7-4)
49ers allowed 26-30-26-42 points in losses, 24 or less in wins.
SF is 1-11 ATS in last 12 games coming off a win.
In their four losses, 49ers were minus-8 in turnovers.
Purdy is 29-16 as an NFL starter.
Shanahan is 85-70 as an NFL head coach
Last four games, 49ers allowed 26-24-42-22 points.
49ers are 8-11 ATS last 19 games as a home favorite.
49ers ran for less than 100 yards in eight of last 10 games.
49ers gave up 400+ total yards in three of last four games.
49ers are 4-1 in games decided by 5 or less points.
RB McCaffrey played for Carolina from 2017-22.
49ers won last two series games, 37-15/51-13.
This is Carolina’s first visit here since 2019.
Over is 3-1 in last four meetings.
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Big Dawg’s NFL picks
Selections are posted on Saturday
2025 record: 14-19, minus 207
2024 record: 25-28-1, minus 174
2023 record: 30-23-1, plus 141
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Armadillo’s NFL picks
Selections are posted on Saturday
2025 record: 3-6, minus 108 jeffersons
2024 record: 6-6, minus 18 largents ______________________________
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