2025 NFL
Week 3
Thursday’s game
Dolphins @ Bills (–12.5)
Dolphins (0-2)
Dolphins lost their first two games,, giving up 33-33 points.
In two games, Miami has run ball only 27 times for 139 yards.
Miami is minus-4 in turnovers in two games.
Under McDaniel, Dolphins are 6-11 ATS as abroad underdog.
QB Tagovailoa is 38-27 as an NFL starter.
McDaniel is 28-27 as a head coach, 0-2 in playoffs.
Under McDaniel, Dolphins are 6-3 ATS in AFC East road games.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 10-11-1 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Bills (2-0)
Buffalo won its first two games,. Scoring 41-30 points.
Last three years, Bills are 3-6-1 ATS as a double digit favorite.
QB Allen is 85-40 as an NFL starter.
McDermott is 95-52 as an NFL head coach.
Last five years, Bills are 21-16-1 ATS as a rhyme favorite.
Last four years, Bills are 6-5-1 ATS in AFC East home games.
Buffalo is 10-5 ATS in last fifteen games coming off a win.
Bills won four in row, 12 of last 13 series games.
Dolphins covered three of last four visits to Buffalo.
Over is 8-5 in last thirteen meetings.
NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 4-3 ATS so far this year.
Sunday’s games
Bengals @ Vikings (–3.5)
Bengals (2-0)
Bengals won their first two games, by 1-4 points.
Cincinnati got outgained by 186-50 yards in those games.
Bengals have run ball 40 times for only 94 yards in two games.
Backup QB Browning is 4-3 as an NFL starter (starts in 2023).
Taylor is 53-54-1 as a head coach.
Last four years, Bengals are 8-4-1 ATS as home favorites.
Since 2022, Bengals are 19-7-1 ATS coming off a win.
Vikings (1-1)
Vikings beat Bears 27-24, lost 22-6 at home to Atlanta.
Vikinga got outgained by 63-128 yards in those games.
Minnesota is 5-8-1 ATS in last 14 games coming off a loss.
Backup QB Wentz is 47-47-1 as an NFL starter, for five different teams.
O’Connell is 35-20 as an NFL head coach.
Under O’Connell, Vikings are 8-10 ATS as a home favorite.
Under O’Connell, Vikings are 27-9 SU in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
Home team won the last six series games.
Bengals lost 34-7/30-10 in last two visits to Minnesota.
Three of last four meetings went over the total.
Steelers (–1.5) @ Patriots
Steelers (1-1)
Steelers beat the Jets 34-32, lost 31-17 at home to Seattle.
Steelers have run ball 41 times for only 125 yards.
Last 4+ years, Pittsburgh is 4-4 ATS as a road favorite.
QB Rodgers is 165-98-1 as an NFL starter.
Tomlin is 192-119-2 as an NFL head coach.
Tomlin won a Super Bowl, but it was in 2008.
Rodgers won a Super Bowl, but it was in 2010.
Steelers are 25-14-1 ATS last 39 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Patriots (1-1)
Patriots lost 20-13 to Raiders, won 33-27 at Miami.
NE allowed only 117 rushing yards, on 39 attempts.
Patriots are 4-12-1 ATS last 17 games as a home underdog.
QB Maye is 4-10 as an NFL starter.
Vrabel is 57-49 as an NFL head coach.
NE is 9-17-3 ATS last 29 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Last 3+ years, NE is 16-9-1 ATS in games coming off a win.
New England won seven of last eight series games.
Steelers are 1-5 SU/1-4-1 ATS last six visits to Foxboro.
Under is 5-1 in last six series games.
Colts (-4.5) @ Titans
Colts (2-0)
Colts won two home games so far, scoring 32-29 points.
Colts have scored on 14 of 16 drives, haven’t punted yet.
Indy outgained first two opponents by 207-149 yards.
QB Jones is 27-45-1 is as an NFL starter.
Steichen is 19-17 SU in 2+ years as a head coach
Last 15 years, Colts are 4-10-1 SU/3-11-1 ATS in road openers.
Colts are 5-1 ATS in last six AFC South road games.
Under Steichen, Indy is 9-8 ATS in games coming off a win.
Titans (0-2)
Tennessee lost 20-12 in Denver, 33-19 to the Rams.
Titans have one TD, 8 FG’s on their 25 drives.
Titans were outgained by 184-187 yards in those games.
Last 4+ years, Tennessee is 12-14-2 ATS coming off a loss.
Titans are 3-10 ATS in last 13 games as an underdog.
Rookie QB Ward is 0-2 as an NFL starter.
Callahan is 3-16 as an NFL head coach.
Titans are 2-7 ATS in last nine AFC South home games.
Indianapolis won/covered last four meetings.
Colts won/covered five of last seven visits to Nashville.
Under is 5-3 in last eight series games.
Rams @ Eagles (-4.5)
Rams (2-0)
Rams won first two games, allowing 9-19 points.
LA has allowed only one TD on 20 drives.
Obviously, Rams are stepping up in class this week.
Last 2+ years, Rams are 14-6-1 ATS coming off a win.
QB Stafford is 41-25 as the Rams’ starter (115-118-1 overall).
McVay is 90-57 as an NFL head coach.
Rams are 5-9-1 ATS in last 15 games as a road underdog.
Overall, Rams are 9-6-1 ATS in last sixteen games as an underdog.
Eagles (2-0)
Eagles beat Dallas 24-20, Chiefs 20-17.
Chiefs outgained Eagles 294-216 LW, but Philly still won.
Philly was +1 turnovers in both games this season.
QB Hurts is 53-23 as an NFL starter, 5-3 in playoff games.
Sirianni is 55-23 as an NFL coach, 5-3 in playoff games.
Eagles are 6-9-1 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite.
Philly is 22-16-2 ATS in last 40 games coming off a win.
Eagles won nine of last ten series games.
Philly beat the Rams 28-22 in last year’s playoffs.
Rams won their last visit to Philly, 37-19 in 2020.
Texans @ Jaguars (-1.5)
Texans (0-2)
Texans lost first two games, by 1-5 points.
Texans have only two TD’s on 18 drives.
Houston has converted only 4-18 third down plays.
QB Stroud is 21-17 as an NFL starter.
Ryans is 22-18 in 2+ years as an NFL head coach.
Texans are 11-7-1 ATS last 19 games as a road underdog.
Texans are 9-3 ATS in last 12 AFC South road games.
Under Ryans, Houston is 9-9 ATS in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Jaguars (1-1)
Jaguars split their first two games, scoring 26-27 points.
Jaguars outgained first two opponents by 123-50 yards.
QB Lawrence is 24-40 as an NFL starter.
Liam Coen is 1-1 as an NFL head coach.
Jaguars are 5-4 ATS last nine games as a home favorite.
Jaguars are 10-9 ATS last 19 games coming off a loss.
Jags are 6-5-1 ATS in last 12 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Jaguars are 4-2 ATS in last six AFC South home games.
Texans won 12 of last 14 series games.
Houston won its last six visits to Jacksonville.
Under is 5-1 in last six series games.
Falcons (-5.5) @ Panthers
Falcons (1-1)
Atlanta lost 23-20 at home to Tampa Bay, won 22-6 at Minnesota.
Falcons held first two opponents to 260-198 total yards.
Under Morris, Atlanta is 5-10 ATS in games coming off a win.
QB Penix is 2-3 as an NFL starter.
Morris is 30-48 as a head coach.
Under Morris, Atlanta is 3-5-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Since 2021, Atlanta is 7-5 ATS in NFC South road games.
Panthers (0-2)
Panthers lost two road games, giving up 26-27 points.
Carolina is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six home openers.
QB Young is 6-24 as an NFL starter.
Canales is 5-14 as a head coach.
Panthers are 12-8-1 ATS last 21 games as a home underdog.
Carolina is 10-15-2 ATS in last 27 games coming off a loss.
Carolina is 6-2-1 ATS in last nine NFC South home games.
Teams split last ten series games.
Falcons won five of last seven visits to Carolina.
Under is 7-4 in last eleven meetings.
Jets @ Buccaneers (-6.5)
Jets (0-2)
Jets lost first two games, giving up 34-30 points.
Backup QB Taylor gets start here; Fields has a concussion.
Taylor is 28-29-1 as an NFL starter, for five different teams.
Aaron Glenn is 0-2 as a head coach.
Jets are 2-7-1 ATS in last nine games as a road underdog.
Jets are 1-5 SU/2-4 ATS in last six road openers.
Jets are 5-18-1 ATS last 24 games vs NFC teams.
Jets are 7-14-1 ATS in last 22 games coming off a loss.
Buccaneers (2-0)
Tampa Bay won 23-20 in Atlanta, 20-19 in Houston.
Short week for Buccaneers after Monday night’s dramatic win.
Mayfield is 54-56 as an NFL starter, 22-17 with the Bucs.
Bowles is 56-68 as a head coach, 30-27 with Tampa Bay.
Tampa Bay is 5-3-1 ATS last nine games as a home favorite.
Bucs are 8-3 ATS in last 11 games vs AFC opponents.
Bucs are 6-2 SU/5-3 ATS in last eight home openers.
Bucs are only team in last 55 years to start season 2-0, with both wins coming on last-minute touchdowns.
Jets won 10 of 13 series games.
Jets are 3-2 at Tampa Bay; their last visit was in 2017.
Under is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Raiders @ Commanders (-3.5)
Raiders (1-1)
Raiders won 20-13 at New England, lost 20-9 to the Chargers.
Raiders have run ball 43 times for only 124 yards.
QB Geno Smith is 41-45 as an NFL starter.
Carroll is 182-132-1 as an NFL head coach, 11-11 in playoffs.
Raiders are 22-16 ATS last 38 games as a road underdog.
Las Vegas is 19-24-1 ATS in last 44 games coming off a loss.
Raiders are 8-10-1 ATS in last 19 games vs NFC teams.
Commanders (1-1)
QB Daniels (knee sprain) is a ?? mark; check status.
QB Daniels is 15-7 as an NFL starter.
Marcus Mariota is Washington’s backup QB (35-41 record)
Quinn is 61-51 as an NFL coach, 5-3 in playoffs.
Commanders beat Giants 21-3, lost 27-18 at Green Bay.
Under Quinn, Commanders are 7-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Last three years, Washington is 9-6 ATS vs AFC opponents.
Commanders are 14-20-1 ATS in last 35 games coming off a loss.
Commanders won last four series games.
Raiders last visit here was in 2017.
Raiders beat Washington 38-9 in Super Bowl XVIII (long time ago)
Packers (-7.5) @ Browns
Packers (2-0)
Green Bay won first two games, 27-13/27-18.
Packers have allowed only 97 yards on 41 running attempts.
QB Love is 21-17 as an NFL starter
LaFleur is 72-38 as an NFL head coach.
Packers are 4-11-1 ATS last 16 games as a road favorite.
Last 4+ years, Packers are 24-16-1 ATS coming off a win.
Green Bay is 7-8 ATS last 15 games vs AFC opponents.
Packers are 4-2 SU/ATS in last six road openers.
Over is 14-5 in Green Bay’s last 19 road openers.
Browns (0-2)
Browns lost first two games, scoring 16-17 points.
Cleveland is minus-4 in turnovers already.
Last 3+ years, Browns are 14-13-1 ATS coming off a loss.
Since 2021, Cleveland is 7-6-1 ATS as a home underdog.
QB Flacco is 115-94 as an NFL starter (7-16 since 2020)
Flacco won a Super Bowl with Ravens in 2012.
Stefanski is 41-48 as a head coach.
Last five years, Cleveland is 14-9-1 ATS vs NFC teams.
Green Bay won last four series games (3-1 ATS)
Packers won 27-21/31-3 in last two visits to Cleveland.
Broncos @ Chargers (-2.5)
Broncos (1-1)
Denver beat Tennessee 20-12, lost 29-28 at the Colts.
Daniel Jones passed for 316 yards against them last week.
Broncos are minus-3 in turnovers already.
Under Payton, Denver is 6-8 ATS as a road underdog.
QB Nix is 11-9 as an NFL starter.
Payton is 180-115 as an NFL head coach, 19-18 with Denver.
Denver is 5-4 ATS in last nine AFC West road games.
Denver is 12-20-1 ATS in last 33 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Chargers (2-0)
Chargers beat Chiefs 27-21 in Brazil, Raiders 20-9 in Las Vegas.
Bolts have passed for 540 yards, but ran for only 90-81 yards.
Chargers are 6-2 SU/8-0 ATS last 8 games vs AFC West rivals .
QB Herbert is 43-40 as an NFL starter, 0-2 in playoff games.
Jim Harbaugh is 62-29-1 as an NFL head coach.
Chargers are 6-4 ATS in last 10 games as a home favorite.
Under Harbaugh, Chargers are 7-3 ATS in games coming off a win.
Chargers are 3-5 SU in last eight home openers.
Under Harbaugh, Chargers are 6-4 ATS games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Teams split their last ten meetings.
Broncos are 1-4 SU/2-2-1 ATS in last five road series games.
Under is 4-2 in last six series games played in California.
Saints @ Seahawks (-7.5)
Saints (0-2)
Saints lost 20-13/26-21, both to NFC West teams at home.
Saints have converted only 7-21 third down plays.
New Orleans has been outscored 33-17 in first half of games.
Since 2018, Saints are 18-8-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Kellen Moore is 0-2 as a head coach.
Rattler is 0-8 as an NFL starting QB.
Saints are 7-13 ATS in last 2- games coming off a loss.
Seahawks (1-1)
Seahawks lost 17-13 to 49ers, won 31-17 at Pittsburgh.
In a 14-14 game, Seattle scored 10 points in a 0:05 span of 4th quarter.
Seattle is 6-12-1 ATS in last 19 games as a home favorite.
Darnold is 36-40 as an NFL starter.
Seahawks are his 4th team the last four years.
MacDonald is 11-8 as a head coach.
Since 2020, Seattle is 15-22-3 ATS in games coming off a win.
New Orleans won last four series games (3-1 ATS).
Saints won 13-10/33-27 in last two visits to Seattle
Over is 5-3 in last eight meetings.
Cardinals @ 49ers (-2.5)
Cardinals (2-0)
Cardinals won 20-13 at New Orleans, beat Carolina 27-22.
Cardinals outscored those teams 37-13 in first half.
Under Gannon, Arizona is 9-6 ATS as a road underdog.
Murray is 38-46-1 as an NFL starter.
Gannon is 14-22 in 2+ years as a head coach.
Under Gannon, Arizona is 2-4 ATS in NFC West road games.
Arizona is 5-10 ATS in last 15 games coming off a win.
Arizona is 12-10 ATS in last 22 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
49ers (2-0)
QB Purdy (toe/shoulder) is banged up; check status
Mac Jones (played last week) is the 49ers’ backup QB.
QB Purdy is 28-15 as an NFL starter; Jones is 21-30.
Shanahan is 80-66 as an NFL head coach
Since 2020, 49ers are 17-14-1 ATS as a home favorite.
49ers won/covered last three home openers.
Last 2+ years, 49ers are 7-11-1 ATS in games coming off a win.
Last two years, 49ers are 1-5 ATS in NFC West home games.
Arizona swept the 49ers last year, 24-23/47-24.
Cardinals are 3-3 SU/3-2-1 ATS last six visits to San Francisco.
Over is 5-1 in last six meetings.
Chiefs (-5.5) @ Giants
Chiefs (0-2)
Chiefs (-3.5) lost 27-21 to the Chargers, 20-17 to the Eagles.
Chiefs are 0-2 for the first time since 2014.
QB Mahomes is 106-28 as an NFL starter, 17-3 in playoff games.
Andy Reid is 301-165-1 as an NFL head coach
Chiefs are 16-19-1 ATS in last 36 games as a road favorite.
Chiefs are 7-1 SU/6-2 ATS in their last eight road openers.
Chiefs are 7-4 ATS in last 11 games coming off a loss.
Chiefs are 13-9 ATS in last 22 games vs NFC teams.
Giants (0-2)
Giants lost 21-6 to Washington, 40-37 in OT to Dallas.
Giants gave up 432-478 yards in those two games.
QB Wilson is 130-87-1 as an NFL starter, 23-34 last 4+ years.
Daboll is 19-35-1 as an NFL head coach, 1-1 in playoffs.
Last 13 years, Giants are 2-11 SU/1-12 ATS in home openers.
Under Daboll, Giants are 10-9-1 ATS as a home underdog
Under Daboll, Giants are 9-5-1 ATS vs AFC teams.
Under Daboll, Giants are 17-14 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Giants won four of last six series games.
Chiefs lost 12-9/27-17 in last two visits here.
Last three meetings stayed under the total.
Lions @ Ravens (-4.5)
Lions (1-1)
Lions lost 27-13 at Green Bay, squashed the Bears 52-21 LW.
Detroit is 22-11 ATS last 33 games coming off a win.
QB Goff is 86-58-1 as an NFL starter, 44-31-1 with Detroit.
Campbell is 47-38-1 as an NFL head coach.
Detroit has two new coordinators this season.
Lions are 13-9 ATS last 22 games as a road underdog.
Detroit is 13-7 ATS in last 20 games vs AFC teams
Ravens (1-1)
Ravens lost 41-40 in Buffalo, beat the Browns 41-17.
LW, Ravens scored 24 points on four 2nd half drives.
Last two years, Baltimore is 14-10 ATS coming off a win.
QB Jackson is 74-30 as an NFL starter
John Harbaugh is 186-116 as an NFL head coach.
Last 2+ years, Baltimore is 11-6 ATS as a home favorite.
Ravens are 10-5 ATS in last 15 games vs NFC teams.
Ravens are 5-0 SU/4-1 in last five series games.
Lions lost last three visits to Baltimore: 38-6/44-20/48-3.
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Big Dawg’s NFL picks
Picks are posted on Saturday
2025 record: 3-3, minus 3
2024 record: 25-28-1, minus 174
2023 record: 30-23-1, plus 141
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Armadillo’s NFL picks
Picks are posted on Saturday
2025 record: 0-1, minus 33 strouds
2024 record: 6-6, minus 18 largents ______________________________
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