2025 NFL
Week 6
Thursday
Eagles (–6.5) @ Giants
Eagles (4-1)
Eagles are 4-1, with wins by 4-3-7-6 points.
Eagles have been outgained in all five games.
Last three games, Eagles were held to 86-88-45 rushing yards.
QB Hurts is 55-24 as an NFL starter.
Sirianni is 57-24 as an NFL coach.
Star RB Barkley is banged up (check status)
Philly is 6-2 ATS in last eight games as a road favorite.
Under Sirianni, Philly is 7-10 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Eagles are 4-10-1 ATS in last 15 NFC East road games.
NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 2-6 ATS
Giants (1-4)
Giants split rookie QB Dart’s first two starts.
Last two weeks, Giants allowed 3 offensive TD’s on 22 drives.
LW, Giants were minus-5 in turnovers (86-yard fumble return TD)
Rookie QB Dart is 1-1 as an NFL starter.
Daboll is 20-37-1 as an NFL head coach.
Last three weeks, Giants ran ball for 142.3 yards/game.
Giants have converted only 21 of 65 third down plays.
Under Daboll, Giants are 11-10-1 ATS as a home underdog
Under Daboll, Giants are 18-15 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Giants are 5-7 ATS in last 12 NFC East home games.
Philly won 20 of last 24 meetings.
Eagles are 8-4 SU/7-5 ATS in last 12 visits to the Garden State.
Under is 9-3 in last 12 series games.
Sunday’s games
Jets vs Broncos (–7.5) (@ London)
Jets (0-5)
Jets lost first five games, giving up 34-30-29-27-37 points.
Jets’ losses are by 2-20-2-6-15 points. (opponents over 5-0 team total)
Fields is 14-34 as an NFL starter.
Aaron Glenn is 0-5 as a head coach.
In five games, Jets are minus-8 in turnovers.
Jets are 5-13-1 ATS in last 19 games overall.
Jets are 0-9-1 ATS last 10 games as an underdog.
Jets are 8-16-1 ATS in last 24 games coming off a loss.
AFC East teams are 4-6 ATS in non-conference games.
Broncos (3-2)
Denver’s two losses were by total of four points.
Denver allowed 12-3-17 points in its wins, 28-23 in losses.
QB Nix is 13-10 as an NFL starter.
Payton is 182-116 as an NFL head coach, 21-19 with Denver.
Denver handed Eagles their first loss LW, 21-17.
Under Payton, Denver is 11-8 ATS as a favorite.
Under Payton, Denver is 10-9 ATS in games coming off a win.
AFC West teams are 5-5 ATS in divisional games.
Teams split their last six meetings.
Underdogs are 5-3 ATS in last eight series games.
Under is 3-1 in last four series games.
Browns @ Steelers (–5.5)
Browns (1-4)
Browns don’t have a bye week after playing in London LW.
NFL teams with no bye after overseas games are 9-8 ATS
Rookie QB Gabriel lost his first NFL start last week.
Flacco got traded Tuesday; unsure if Sanders/Zappe is QB2
Stefanski is 42-50 as a head coach.
Browns scored 16-17-13-10-17 points in their five games.
Cleveland is minus-4 in turnovers.
Browns are 5-11 ATS last 15 games coming off a loss.
Cleveland is 8-17-1 ATS last 25 games as a road underdog.
Browns are 4-15 ATS in last 19 AFC North road games.
Steelers (3-1)
Steelers scored 34-21-24 points in wins, 17 in their loss.
Road team won all four of their games.
Pittsburgh is +7 in turnovers this season.
QB Rodgers is 167-98-1 as an NFL QB
Tomlin is 194-119-2 as an NFL head coach.
Tomlin won a Super Bowl, but it was in 2008.
Rodgers won a Super Bowl, but it was in 2010.
Pittsburgh is 14-4 ATS last 18 AFC North home games.
Steelers allowed 369+ total yards in all four games.
Last 8 years, Pittsburgh is 8-0 SU/6-2 ATS coming off a bye.
Home team won nine of last ten series games.
Browns are 0-5 SU/ATS last five visits to Pittsburgh.
Over is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Chargers (–4.5) @ Dolphins
Chargers (3-2)
Chargers lost last two games to NFC teams, 21-18/27-10
Bolts have injury issues on their offensive line.
QB Herbert is 44-42 as an NFL starter.
Jim Harbaugh is 63-31-1 as an NFL head coach.
Under Harbaugh, Chargers are 5-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Chargers are 12-10-2 ATS last 24 games vs NFC teams.
Under Harbaugh, Chargers are 6-1 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Chargers have converted 23-53 third down plays.
AFC West teams are 6-8 ATS in non-divisional games.
Dolphins (1-4)
Miami has allowed 28.3 ppg in its 1-4 start.
Miami has had three games with 15 or fewer running plays.
Dolphins were minus-5 in turnovers/1st 3 games, +5 last 2 games.
QB Tagovailoa is 39-29 as an NFL starter.
McDaniel is 29-29 as a head coach.
Since 2020, Miami is 8-5 ATS as a home underdog.
Miami is 0-4 when it allows more than 21 points.
Miami is 9-6-1 ATS in last 16 games coming off a loss.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 7-8 ATS vs NFC teams.
AFC East teams are 4-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
Dolphins won six of last nine series games.
Chargers are 1-5 SU/ATS in last six visits to Miami.
Under is 6-3 in last nine meetings.
Patriots (–3.5) @ Saints
Patriots (3-2)
Patriots scored 33-42-23 points in wins, 13-14 in losses.
Patriots are 2-0 on road: 33-27 at Miami, 23-20 at Buffalo.
Letdown alert after their upset win at Buffalo last week.
QB Maye is 6-11 as an NFL starter.
Vrabel is 59-50 as an NFL head coach.
Patriots are 6-3-1 ATS last 10 games as a road favorite.
This is first time NE is road favorite since Week 13 of 2023
NE is 6-8-2 ATS in last 16 games coming off a win.
Opponents’ team total; under 4-1.
Patriots are 2-8-1 ATS last 11 games vs NFC teams.
Saints (1-4)
Saints won 26-14 LW, despite scoring one TD, trying six FG’s.
Saints were +5 in turnovers LW (even in first four games)
Saints allowed 30.3 ppg in their four losses
New Orleans has been outscored 99-49 in first half of games.
Saints are 7-13 ATS last 20 games as a home underdog.
Kellen Moore is 1-4 as a head coach.
Rattler is 1-10 as an NFL starting QB.
Saints are 10-16-2 ATS in last 28 games coming off a win.
Saints are 6-10 ATS games last 16 games vs AFC teams.
NFC South teams are 8-7 ATS in non-divisional games.
Teams split last four meetings.
This is Patriots’ first visit to Bourbon Street since 2017.
Over is 4-3 in last seven series games.
Rams (–7.5) @ Ravens
Rams (3-2)
Rams allowed 9-19-20 points in wins, 33-26 in losses.
Rams won 33-19 at Tennessee, lost 33-26 at Philly.
In LW’s loss, Rams didn’t score on last two red zone drives.
QB Stafford is 42-27 as the Rams’ starter (116-120-1 overall).
McVay is 91-59 as an NFL head coach.
Last two weeks, Rams threw ball for 360/378 yards.
Under McVay, Rams are 26-19-1 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Rams are 7-1 ATS in last eight games as a road favorite.
Rams are 9-3-1 ATS last 13 games vs AFC teams.
Over is 3-1 in their last four games.
NFC West non-divisional favorites are 6-4 ATS
Ravens (1-3)
Ravens lost their last three games (minus-6 in turnovers)
QB Jackson (hamstring) is questionable; check status.
Ravens gave up 41-38-37-44 points in their four losses.
Ravens are giving up 408.8 yards/game.
Baltimore is 8-3 ATS last 11 games coming off a loss.
QB Jackson is 74-32 as an NFL starter
Backup QB’s: Rush is 9-6, Huntley 5-10
John Harbaugh is 186-119 as an NFL head coach.
Since 2019, Baltimore is 6-2 ATS as a home underdog.
AFC North teams are 4-11 ATS in non-divisional games.
Ravens won five of last six series games.
Rams lost three of last four visits to Baltimore.
Over is 4-3 in last seven meetings.
Cardinals @ Colts (-6.5)
Cardinals (2-3)
Cardinals lost last three games by total of five points.
Last week’s loss was one of worst collapses in NFL history.
Last four games, Cardinals converted 21-55 third down plays.
Murray is 38-49-1 as an NFL starter.
Gannon is 14-25 in 2+ years as a head coach.
LW was first time Cardinals gained more than 293 yards.
Under Gannon, Arizona is 10-6 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Gannon, Arizona is 8-3 ATS vs AFC teams.
Arizona is 14-10 ATS in last 24 games coming off a loss.
NFC West teams are 7-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
Colts (4-1)
Colts are 3-0 at home, scoring 33-29-40 points.
Indy scored 29+ points in all four of its wins.
QB Jones is 29-46-1 is as an NFL starter.
Steichen is 21-18 SU in 2+ years as a head coach
Under Steichen, Indy is 7-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Steichen, Indy is 10-9 ATS in games coming off a win.
In three home games, Colts scored 11 TD’s on 26 drives.
Colts are +5 in turnovers this year.
AFC South teams are 9-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
Colts are 3-2 SU in last five meetings.
This is Cardinals’ first visit to Indy since 2017.
Four of last five series games stayed under the total.
Seahawks @ Jaguars (-1.5)
Seahawks (3-2)
Seahawks won three of last four games, scoring 33 ppg.
Seattle is 2-0 on road (31-17 Steelers/23-20 Arizona)
Darnold is 38-41 as an NFL starter.
Seahawks are his 4th team the last four years.
MacDonald is 13-9 as a head coach.
Seattle held last four foes to 76.5 rushing yards/game.
Seattle is 11-3 ATS in last 14 games as a road underdog.
Seattle is 9-7 ATS in last 16 games coming off a loss.
Opponents’ team total: under 4-1
Seahawks are 3-5-3 ATS last 11 games vs AFC teams.
NFC West teams are 7-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
Jaguars (4-1)
Jacksonville won last three games, by 7-5-3 points.
Jaguars allowed 300+ passing yards in 3 of last 4 games.
QB Lawrence is 27-40 as an NFL starter.
Liam Coen is 4-1 as an NFL head coach.
Jaguars have 14 takeaways, are already +8 in turnovers.
Jaguars are 6-4 ATS last 10 games as a home favorite.
Jaguars are 14-12 ATS last 26 games coming off a win.
Jaguars are 9-5-1 ATS last 15 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Home team won last six series games.
Seahawks lost 30-24/26-14 in last two visits to Jacksonville.
Five of last seven meetings went over the total.
Cowboys (–3.5) @ Panthers
Cowboys (2-2-1)
Last four weeks, Dallas allowed 439.5 yards/game.
Dallas scored 20-14 in its losses, 40-40-37 in win/tie/win.
Over is 3-1 in their last four games.
QB Prescott is 80-53-1 as an NFL starter.
Brian Schottenheimer is 2-2-1 as a head coach.
Since 2021, Cowboys are 12-6 ATS as a road favorite.
Cowboys are 23-19 ATS last 42 games coming off a win.
Dallas is minus-3 in turnovers this season.
Last two games, Dallas scored 10 TD’s on 21 drives.
NFC East teams are 8-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
Panthers (2-3)
Carolina is 2-0 at home (Atlanta 30-0/27-24 Miami)
Panthers allowed 24+ points in four of five games.
QB Young is 8-25 as an NFL starter.
Canales is 7-15 as a head coach.
Under Canales, Panthers are 6-3 ATS as a home underdog.
Under Canales, Carolina is 2-3 ATS in games coming off a win.
Carolina ran ball for 239 yards in LW’s 27-24 win over Miami.
Last three games, Panthers converted 18-50 third down plays.
NFC South teams are 8-7 ATS in non-divisional games.
Dallas won nine of last eleven series games.
Cowboys are 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS last seven visits to Charlotte.
Over is 3-0 in last three series games.
Titans @ Raiders (-3.5)
Titans (1-4)
Tennessee is 1-4 SU/ATS, losing by 8-14-21-26 points.
Titans won 22-21 in Arizona LW, after trailing 21-6 with 11:00 left.
Rookie QB Ward is 1-4 as an NFL starter.
Callahan is 4-18 as an NFL head coach.
Titans switched play callers in Week 4.
Titans have four TD’s, 13 FG’s on their 57 drives.
Titans were outgained by 184-187-83-168-33 yards in their games.
Last two years, Tennessee was 0-8 ATS coming off a win.
Titans are 4-12 ATS in last 16 games as an underdog.
AFC South teams are 9-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
Raiders (1-4)
Raiders lost last three games, giving up 20-41-25-40 points.
Raiders lost first two home games, 20-9/25-24.
Last two games, Raiders were minus-5 in turnovers.
QB Geno Smith is 41-48 as an NFL starter.
Carroll is 182-135-1 as an NFL head coach.
Opponents converted 20 of last 46 third down plays.
Las Vegas is favored for first time this season.
Last three years, Raiders are 10-4 ATS as a home favorite.
Las Vegas is 20-26-1 ATS in last 47 games coming off a loss.
AFC West teams are 6-8 ATS in divisional games.
Tennessee is 5-3 in last eight series games.
This is Titans’ first-ever visit to Las Vegas.
Favorites are 8-3 ATS in last 11 meetings.
49ers @ Buccaneers (-2.5)
49ers (4-1)
49ers’ five games were all decided by 5 or fewer points.
Last four games, SF ran ball for 77-73-83-74 yards.
Unclear whether Jones/Purdy will start at QB.
QB Purdy is 28-16 as an NFL starter; Jones is 23-30.
Shanahan is 82-67 as an NFL head coach
49ers gave up 378 passing yards in LW’s 26-23 road win.
Last two games, 49ers threw ball for 306/333 yards.
Since 2022, 49ers are 1-3 ATS as a road underdog.
49ers are 1-9 ATS in last 10 games coming off a win.
NFC West teams are 7-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
Buccaneers (4-1)
Tampa Bay’s five games were all decided by 6 or fewer points.
Buccaneers’ only loss was 31-25 at home to the Eagles.
Last three games, Tampa Bay gave up 27-31-35 points.
Mayfield is 56-57 as an NFL starter, 24-18 with the Bucs.
Bowles is 58-69 as a head coach, 32-28 with Tampa Bay.
Tampa Bay is 5-4-1 ATS last 10 games as a home favorite.
Bucs’ four wins are all by 3 or fewer points.
Bucs allowed 341 passing yards in LW’s 38-35 win at Seattle.
Bucs are 4-8 ATS in last 12 games coming off a win.
NFC South teams are 8-7 ATS in non-divisional games.
49ers are 4-0 SU/2-2 ATS in last four series games.
49ers won three of last four visits to Tampa.
Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.
Bengals @ Packers (-14.5)
Bengals (2-3)
Bengals lost last three games, by 38-25-13 points.
Bengals acquired QB Flacco Tuesday; he is starting.
Bengals have run ball for only 57 yards/game.
Flacco is 116-95 as an NFL starter.
Taylor is 53-57-1 as a head coach.
Cincinnati is minus-5 in turnovers this season.
Cincinnati converted nine of last 33 third down plays.
Bengals are 8-6-1 ATS last 15 games as road underdogs (0-2 TY).
Bengals are 22-15-1 ATS last 38 coming off a loss.
AFC North teams are 4-11 ATS in divisional games.
Packers (2-1-1)
Green Bay won their two home games, 27-13/27-18.
Packers held three of four opponents under 250 total yards.
Packers tied last game 40-40 in Dallas, after leading 13-0.
QB Love is 21-18-1 as an NFL starter
LaFleur is 72-39-1 as an NFL head coach.
Packers are 8-4-1 ATS last 13 games as a home favorite.
Packers are 3-5 SU/ATS last eight post-bye games.
Green Bay scored 27+ points in three of its four games.
Since 2021, Packers are 5-1 ATS as a double digit favorite.
NFC North teams are 7-5 ATS in divisional games.
Packers won last two meetings, 25-22/27-24
Underdogs are 4-0-1 ATS last five series games.
Over is 3-1 in last four meetings.
Lions @ Chiefs (-2.5)
Lions (4-1)
Lions won last four games, scoring 40.3 points/game.
Detroit is +7 in turnovers in its last four games.
Lions held four of five opponents under 90 yards rushing.
QB Goff is 89-58-1 as an NFL starter, 47-31-1 with Detroit.
Campbell is 51-38-1 as an NFL head coach.
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Lions are 8-4 ATS last 12 games as a road underdog.
Detroit is 16-7 ATS in last 23 games vs AFC teams
Detroit is 25-11 ATS last 36 games coming off a win.
Detroit is 16-6 ATS last 22 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
NFC North teams are 7-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
Chiefs (2-3)
Short week for Chiefs after Monday’s loss in Jacksonville.
Last three games, Kansas City is +5 in turnovers.
Last two games, Chiefs threw ball for 264/318 yards.
QB Mahomes is 108-29 as an NFL starter.
Andy Reid is 303-166-1 as an NFL head coach
Chiefs are 17-22 ATS last 39 games as a home favorite.
Chiefs are 8-4 ATS last 12 games coming off a loss.
Chiefs are 14-8 ATS last 22 regular season games vs NFC teams.
Chiefs converted 18 of last 39 third down plays.
AFC West teams are 6-8 ATS in non-divisional games.
Teams split their last six meetings.
Lions won last meeting, 21-20 at Arrowhead, in 2023.
Over is 5-1 in last six series games.
Monday’s games
Bills (–4.5) @ Falcons
Bills (4-1)
Buffalo scored 41-30-31-31 points in its four wins.
Last week, Bills lost 23-20 at home to New England.
Buffalo is 11-7 ATS last 18 games coming off a loss.
QB Allen is 87-41 as an NFL starter.
McDermott is 96-53 as an NFL head coach.
Bills won their only road game, 30-10 at the Jets.
Buffalo is 14-11 ATS last 25 games as a road favorite.
Bills converted 14 of last 30 third down plays.
Buffalo is 10-10-1 ATS in last 21 games vs NFC teams.
AFC East teams are 4-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
Falcons (2-2)
Atlanta is 2-2 despite outgaining foes by 98-128-108-141 yards.
Falcons held first three foes to 260-198-224-294 total yards.
Atlanta scored 22-34 points in its wins, 20-0 in losses.
QB Penix is 3-4 as an NFL starter.
Morris is 31-49 as a head coach.
Under Morris, Atlanta is 2-3 ATS as a home underdog.
Last 15 years, Falcons are 11-4 SU/ATS in post-bye games.
Atlanta is 3-10-2 ATS in last 15 games vs AFC teams.
Last 16 years, Falcons are 11-5 SU/ATS in post-bye games.
NFC South teams are 8-7 ATS in non-divisional games.
Bills won 23-15/23-17 in last two series games.
Underdogs covered four of last five meetings.
Under is 3-1 in last four series games.
Bears @ Commanders (-4.5)
Bears (2-2)
Bears won their last two games, scoring 31-25 points.
In their two wins, Chicago was +7 in turnovers.
Ben Johnson is 2-2 as an NFL head coach.
QB Williams is 7-14 as an NFL starter.
Chicago is 12-21-2 ATS last 35 games as a road underdog.
Last 11 years, Chicago is 1-10 SU/3-8 ATS in games coming off a bye.
Bears gave up 240 yards rushing in their 25-24 win at Las Vegas.
Three of their four games went over the total.
NFC North teams are 7-5 ATS in divisional games.
Commanders (3-2)
Washington is 2-0 at home: 21-6 Giants/41-24 Raiders.
Washington averaged 8.4 yards/pass attempt in LW’s 27-10 win at the Chargers.
Last three games, Commanders scored 41-27-27 points.
QB Daniels is 16-7 as an NFL starter.
Quinn is 63-52 as an NFL coach.
In its wins, Commanders ran ball for 220-201-163 yards.
Under Quinn, Commanders are 8-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Opponents converted 15 of last 28 third down plays.
Under Quinn, Commanders are 7-6 ATS in games coming off a win.
NFC East teams are 8-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
Washington won nine of last 11 series games (2-2 last four)
Teams split last four meetings played here.
Over is 5-2 in last seven series games.
Washington interviewed Ben Johnson for their coaching opening in spring of 2024, but he pulled out of the running and stayed as OC of the Lions last year.
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Big Dawg’s NFL picks
Picks are posted on Saturday
2025 record: 6-9, minus 117
2024 record: 25-28-1, minus 174
2023 record: 30-23-1, plus 141
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Armadillo’s NFL picks
Picks are posted on Saturday
2025 record: 1-2, minus 36 herberts
2024 record: 6-6, minus 18 largents ______________________________
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