2025 NFL
Week 9
Thursday’s game
Ravens (-8.5) @ Dolphins
Ravens (2-5)
Baltimore snapped a 4-game skid LW, beating Bears 30-16.
Ravens are 0-2 on road: 41-40 (Bills), 37-20 (Chiefs)
QB Jackson (hamstring) is expected back for this game.
QB Jackson is 74-32 as an NFL starter
John Harbaugh is 187-120 as an NFL head coach.
Ravens are 13-8 ATS last 21 games as a road favorite.
Last five games, Ravens are minus-7 in turnovers.
Ravens are 14-11 ATS last 25 games coming off a win.
Last two games, Baltimore held opponent to 74-96 rushing yards.
AFC North favorites are 4-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
Dolphins (2-6)
Miami snapped a 3-game skid LW, beating Atlanta 34-10.
Miami allowed 27+ points in all six of its losses.
Dolphins are minus-9 in turnovers in losses, +4 in their wins.
QB Tagovailoa is 40-31 as an NFL starter.
McDaniel is 30-31 as a head coach.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 3-2 ATS as a road underdog.
Miami is 3-6 ATS in last nine games coming off a win.
Miami held last two opponents to 206-213 total yards.
Dolphins went over their team total five of last six games.
Miami DC Weaver worked for the Ravens from 2021-23.
AFC East teams are 13-9 ATS in non-divisional games.
Baltimore won nine of last 12 series games.
Ravens won last meeting, 56-19, two years ago.
Ravens won three of last five visits to Miami.
Over is 5-1 in last six meetings.
Sunday’s games
Falcons @ Patriots (-5.5)
Falcons (3-4)
Atlanta is 3-0 if its scores 22+ points, 0-4 if it doesn’t.
Last two games, Falcons scored two TD’s on 18 drives.
Atlanta is +5 in turnovers in its three wins.
QB Penix is 4-5 as an NFL starter. Cousins is 84-78-2.
Morris is 32-51 as a head coach.
Atlanta is 3-8 ATS last 11 games as a road underdog.
Falcons are 7-12-1 ATS last 20 games coming off a loss.
Atlanta is 5-11-1 ATS in last 17 games vs AFC teams.
Last two games, Falcons ran ball 37 times for 107 yards.
Under is 6-1 in Atlanta games.
NFC South underdogs are 9-11 ATS in non-divisional games.
Patriots (6-2)
Patriots won/covered their last five games.
Patriots were held to 13-14 points in their losses.
Patriots held last three foes to 296-255-213 total yards.
QB Maye is 9-11 as an NFL starter.
Vrabel is 62-50 as an NFL head coach.
Patriots are 2-4 ATS last six games as a home favorite.
NE is 9-8-2 ATS in last 19 games coming off a win.
Opponents’ team total; under 7-1.
Patriots held six of eight foes under 100 rushing yards.
Last four games, New England is +5 in turnovers.
AFC East teams are 13-9 ATS in non-divisional games.
New England won/covered last six series games.
Falcons lost 23-7/26-10 in last two visits to Foxboro.
Under is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Chargers (–9.5) @ Titans
Chargers (5-3)
Chargers lost three of their last five games.
Last three games, Chargers scored 29-24-37 points.
Bolts are 3-1 in games decided by 6 or fewer points.
QB Herbert is 45-43 as an NFL starter.
Jim Harbaugh is 64-32-1 as an NFL head coach.
Chargers are 12-6-2 ATS last 20 games as a road favorite.
Under Harbaugh, Chargers are 8-5 ATS in games coming off a win.
Bolts are 4-1 when they allow 21 or fewer points.
Last six games, Chargers are minus-5 in turnovers.
AFC West road teams are 3-7 ATS in non-divisional games.
Titans (1-7)
Tennessee is 1-7 SU/2-6ATS, with six losses by 10+ points.
Titans are 0-3 ATS as a home underdog this year.
Interim coach McCoy was 28-38 coaching Chargers from 2013-16.
Rookie QB Ward is 1-7 as an NFL starter.
In their only win, Titans trailed 21-6 with 11:00 left.
Titans ran the ball for 113 yards LW, their most this year.
Titans were held under 300 TY in six of eight games.
Tennessee is 4-15-1 ATS last 20 games coming off a loss.
Titans are 4-15 ATS in last 19 games as an underdog.
Over is 5-2 in their last seven games.
Home team won last nine series games.
Chargers lost last three visits to Nashville, all by 3 points.
Over is 8-3 in last 11 meetings.
Bears @ Bengals (-2.5)
Bears (4-3)
Bears won four of their last five games.
Bears are 4-0 scoring 25+ points, 0-3 otherwise.
In wins, Chicago was +13 in turnovers; minus-3 in losses.
Ben Johnson is 4-3 as an NFL head coach.
QB Williams is 9-15 as an NFL starter.
Chicago is 13-22-2 ATS last 37 games as a road underdog.
Chicago is 12-10-1 ATS in last 23 games coming off a loss.
Bears are 4-0 when they allow less than 27 points.
Bears are 4-7-1 ATS last 12 games vs AFC opponents.
Chicago is 7-13-3 ATS in last 23 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Bengals (3-5)
Bengals lost five of their last six games.
Bengals lost 39-38 to Jets LW, blowing a 31-16 lead.
Over is 4-0 in Cincinnati home games.
Flacco is 117-97 as an NFL starter.
Taylor is 54-59-1 as a head coach.
Cincinnati is 13-8-2 ATS last 23 games as home favorites.
Bengals are 24-15-1 ATS last 40 games coming off a loss.
Bengals converted 17-38 3rd down plays with Flacco at QB.
Bengals are +3 in turnovers last 3 games (minus-5/first five)
AFC North teams are 7-15 ATS in non-divisional games.
Bengals won last three series games (2-0-1 ATS).
Bears lost two of last three visits to Cincinnati.
Over is 3-1 in last four meetings.
Colts (–3.5) @ Steelers
Colts (7-1)
Colts are 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS in last four games.
Indy scored 29+ points in all seven of its wins.
Colts’ team total: over 7-1
QB Jones is 32-46-1 is as an NFL starter.
Steichen is 24-18 SU as a head coach
Under Steichen, Indy is 4-3 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Steichen, Indy is 12-10 ATS in games coming off a win.
Colts won only games on grass, 41-20 at Tennessee.
Colts are +8 in turnovers this year.
Last four weeks, Colts scored 40-31-38-38 points.
Steelers (4-3)
Steelers lost last two games, giving up 33-35 points.
Steelers are 3-0 when they allow less than 31 points.
Pittsburgh allowed 470/454 yards in its last two games.
QB Rodgers is 168-100-1 as an NFL QB
Tomlin is 195-121-2 as an NFL head coach.
Steelers are 13-5-1 ATS last 19 games as a home underdog.
Pittsburgh is 10-6 ATS last 16 games coming off a loss.
Steelers allowed 32-31-35 points in their three losses.
Steelers went over their team total the last four games.
Over is 5-2 in their games this year.
Colts beat Steelers last two years, 27-24/30-13.
Home team won/covered last five series games.
Colts are 0-4 SU/ATS in last four visits to Pittsburgh.
Over is 5-0 in last five meetings.
49ers (–2.5) @ Giants
49ers (5-3)
49ers allowed 26-30-26 points in losses, 23 or less in wins.
SF ran ball for less than 85 yards in six of last seven games.
In their three losses, 49ers were minus-6 in turnovers.
QB Jones is 24-32 as an NFL starter.
Shanahan is 83-69 as an NFL head coach
49ers went under their team total five of last six games.
49ers are 9-6-1 ATS last 16 games as a road favorite.
49ers are 8-9 ATS last 17 games coming off a loss.
49ers are 10-11 ATS in last 21 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
NFC West favorites are 10-4 ATS in non-divisional games.
Giants (2-6)
Home team is 5-0 SU in rookie QB Dart’s first five starts (NYG 2-3).
Giants allowed 18-17 points in wins, 21+ points in losses.
Giants are +4 in turnovers in wins, minus-8 in losses.
Last two games, Giants gave up 33-38 points.
Daboll is 21-39-1 as an NFL head coach.
Under Daboll, Giants are 12-10-1 ATS as a home underdog
Under Daboll, Giants are 19-16 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Giants went over team total in four of Dart’s five starts.
Giants’ last three games went over the total.
NFC East underdogs are 4-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
49ers won three of last four series games.
Teams split last six games played here.
Over is 4-1 in last five meetings.
Broncos @ Texans (–1.5)
Broncos (6-2)
Broncos won last five games, scoring 33-44 in last two.
Denver has 10 TD’s, 2 FG’s on its last 15 drives
Six off their eight games were decided by 8 or fewer points.
QB Nix is 16-10 as an NFL starter.
Payton is 185-116 as an NFL head coach, 24-19 with Denver.
This is Denver’s first true road game since Week 5.
Under Payton, Denver is 9-11 ATS as an underdog.
Under Payton, Denver is 7-9 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Payton, Denver is 11-11 ATS in games coming off a win.
Broncos are 13-20-1 ATS in last 34 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
AFC West teams are 10-13 ATS in non-divisional games.
Texans (3-4)
Texans won 3 of last 4 games, after an 0-3 start.
Texans scored 9-19-10-19 points in their losses, 26+ in wins.
Houston allowed 0-10-15 points in their two wins.
QB Stroud is 24-19 as an NFL starter.
Ryans is 25-20 in as an NFL head coach.
Texans are 8-15-1 ATS last 24 games as a home favorite.
Texans are 9-11-1 ATS last 21 games coming off a win.
Houston held five of seven opponents under 300 total yards.
Texans gained 353-417-475 yards in wins, 271 or fewer yards in losses.
Houston is 3-0 in games decided by 11+ points, 0-4 in games decided by 8 or less.
Texans are 14-12-1 ATS in last 27 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Broncos are 4-2 SU/3-3 ATS last six series games.
Teams split last four meetings played here.
Five of last six series games stayed under the total.
Vikings @ Lions (-8.5)
Vikings (3-4)
Vikings lost three of last four games, running for 72.5 yards/game.
Vikings are +3 in turnovers in wins, minus-7 in losses.
Last four games, Minnesota is minus-6 in turnovers.
Wentz is 49-49-1 as an NFL starter; rookie Brosmer is #3 QB.
O’Connell is 37-22 as an NFL head coach.
Vikings were held under 100 yards rushing in 5 of last 6 games.
Under O’Connell, Vikings are 5-6-1 ATS as a road underdog
Minnesota is 4-2-1 ATS in last seven NFC North road games.
Last five Minnesota games went over the total.
NFL-wide, home favorites are 13-7 ATS in divisional games.
Lions (5-2)
Detroit won five of its last six games.
Lions scored 37 points/game in wins, 13-17 in losses.
Detroit is 3-0 at home, winning by 31-24-15 points.
QB Goff is 90-59-1 as an NFL starter, 48-32-1 with Detroit.
Campbell is 52-39-1 as an NFL head coach.
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Lions are 17-8 ATS last 25 games as a home favorite.
Lions held five of seven opponents under 90 yards rushing.
Detroit is 11-5 ATS last 16 NFC North home games.
Detroit is 8-4-1 SU/11-2 ATS in last 13 post-bye games.
Last six games, Lions are +7 in turnovers.
Lions won/covered last four series games.
Vikings are 0-4 SU/ATS in last four visits to Detroit.
Over is 9-2 in last 11 series games.
Panthers @ Packers (–13.5)
Panthers (4-4)
Carolina won three of its last four games.
Panthers are 3-1 at home, 1-3 on the road (1-2 ATS as road dog).
Last two games, Carolina scored 2 TD’s, 3 FG’s on 20 drives.
QB Young is 10-25 as an NFL starter.
Canales is 9-16 as a head coach.
Panthers are 6-14-1 ATS last 21 games as a road underdog.
Under Canales, Carolina is 8-6 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Carolina is 1-4 when it allows more than 24 points.
Last three games, Panthers converted 12-36 third down plays.
NFC South underdogs are 9-11 ATS in non-divisional games.
Packers (5-1-1)
Green Bay is 5-0-1 when it scores 27+ points.
Packers held six of seven opponents under 100 rushing yards.
Packers are 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS at home this season.
QB Love is 24-18-1 as an NFL starter
LaFleur is 75-39-1 as an NFL head coach.
Packers are 8-5-1 ATS last 14 games as a home favorite.
Packers are 26-22-1 ATS last 49 games coming off a win.
Green Bay ran for less than 100 yards in four of seven games.
Opponents’ team total: over 4-0 last four games.
NFC North favorites are 8-7 ATS in non-divisional games.
Packers won last three series games, by 3-8-8 points.
Carolina is 1-5 SU/3-3 ATS in last six visits to Green Bay
Over is 8-2 in last ten meetings.
Saints @ Rams (-14.5)
Saints (1-7)
Saints scored 21 or fewer points in all seven of their losses.
Saints were +5 in turnovers in their only win.
Saints allowed 27.9 ppg in their seven losses
New Orleans has been outscored 147-75 in first half of games.
Saints are 16-10-1 ATS last 27 games as a road underdog.
Kellen Moore is 1-7 as a head coach.
26-year old rookie QB Shough gets his first start NFL here.
Saints are 4-12 ATS in last 16 games coming off a loss.
Last three games, Saints ran ball for 63.3 yards/game.
NFC South underdogs are 9-11 ATS in non-divisional games.
Rams (5-2)
Rams allowed 9-19-20-3-7 points in wins, 33-26 in losses.
Last two games, Rams allowed one TD, one FG on 19 drives.
Last three games, Rams ran ball for only 78-74-89 yards.
QB Stafford is 44-27 as the Rams’ starter (118-120-1 overall).
McVay is 93-59 as an NFL head coach.
Last three games, Rams outscored opponents 40-9 in first half.
Rams’ defense has 26 sacks in seven games.
Rams are 14-7 ATS in last 21 games as a favorite.
Under McVay, Rams are 5-3 SU/3-5 ATS in post-bye games.
NFC West non-divisional favorites are 10-4 ATS.
Rams won five of last seven series games.
Saints are 0-5 SU/ATS in last five visits here.
Under is 4-1 in last five meetings played here.
Jaguars (-2.5) @ Raiders
Jaguars (4-3)
Jacksonville lost last two games, 20-12/35-7.
Last two games, Jaguars scored three TD’s on 22 drives.
Last two games, Jaguars inverted 7-31 third down plays.
QB Lawrence is 27-42 as an NFL starter.
Liam Coen is 4-3 as an NFL head coach.
Jaguars were +9 in turnovers first four games, minus-1 last three.
Last 3+ years, Jaguars are 5-3 ATS as a road favorite.
Last 15 years, Jaguars are 10-4-1 ATS in post-bye games.
Jaguars held five of last six opponents under 90 rushing yards.
Lawrence was sacked 14 times the last two games.
Raiders (2-5)
Raiders allowed 13-10 points in wins, 20-41-25-40-31 in losses.
Raiders ran for 106 or fewer yards in six of seven games.
Raiders are minus-7 in turnovers in losses, +2 in wins.
QB Geno Smith is 42-49 as an NFL starter.
Carroll is 183-136-1 as an NFL head coach.
Raiders went under their team total in five of seven games.
Las Vegas is 4-5-1 ATS last 10 games as a home underdog.
Last seven years, Raiders are 1-6 SU/1-5-1 ATS in post-bye games.
Las Vegas is 13-5-1 ATS in last 19 games with spread of 3 or less points.
In their last game, Raiders were outgained 434-95 by the Chiefs.
Raiders won four of last six series games.
Saints are 1-3 SU/2-2 ATS in last four road series games.
Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.
Chiefs (–2.5) @ Bills
Chiefs (5-3)
Short week for Chiefs after Monday night’s win.
Chiefs won/covered five of their last six games.
Last three games, Chiefs allowed 217.3 yards/game.
QB Mahomes is 111-29 as an NFL starter.
Andy Reid is 306-166-1 as an NFL head coach
Last six games, Kansas City is +6 in turnovers.
Chiefs are 8-7 ATS last 15 games as a road favorite.
Chiefs are 18-24 ATS last 42 games coming off a win.
Chiefs are 12-8 ATS in last 20 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Opponents stayed under their team total in 6 of last 7 games.
Bills (5-2)
Buffalo lost two of its last three games.
Buffalo scored 41-30-31-31-40 points in its five wins.
Bills were held to 20-14 points in their losses.
QB Allen is 88-42 as an NFL starter.
McDermott is 97-54 as an NFL head coach.
Bills were +6 in turnovers in their wins, minus-4 in losses.
Since 2021, Buffalo is 1-0 ATS as a home underdog.
Bills are 23-23-1 ATS in last 47 games coming off a win.
Buffalo has 16 sacks in its last four games.
Bills are 12-4-1 ATS in last 17 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Chiefs knocked Buffalo out of playoffs four of the last five years.
Chiefs won four of last five visits to Buffalo.
Over is 5-2 in last seven meetings.
Seahawks (-3.5) @ Commanders
Seahawks (5-2)
Seahawks won/covered five of last six games.
Seattle’s two losses were by 3-4 points.
Seattle won/covered all three road games.
Darnold is 40-41 as an NFL starter.
MacDonald is 15-9 as a head coach.
Seattle held last six foes to 68.5 rushing yards/game.
Seattle is 6-9-1 ATS in last 16 games as a road favorite.
Last five years, Seattle is 1-4 ATS in post-bye games.
Opponents’ team total: under 5-1-1
Last three games, Seattle is minus-5 in turnovers.
Commanders (3-5)
Short week for Commanders after Monday’s loss.
Washington lost its last three games, giving up 25-44-28 points.
Washington gave up 25+ points in its losses, 24 or less in wins.
QB Mariota is 36-43 as an NFL starter; Daniels is 16-9.
Quinn is 63-55 as an NFL coach.
Commanders allowed 354+ yards in six of last seven games.
Commanders are 1-4-1 ATS last six games as a home underdog.
Opponents’ over/under total: over 5-2 last seven games.
Under Quinn, Commanders are 5-4 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Washington’s three wins were by 15-17-17 points.
Teams split their last six meetings.
Last four series games were all decided by 5 or fewer points.
Four of last five meetings stayed under the total.
Cardinals @ Cowboys (–2.5)
Cardinals (2-5)
Cardinals lost last five games by total of 13 points.
Last three games, Arizona gained 353.3 yards/game.
Last four games, Cardinals converted 29-59 third down plays.
Murray is 38-49-1 as an NFL starter. Brissett is 19-36.
Gannon is 14-27 in 2+ years as a head coach.
All seven Arizona games were decided by 7 or fewer points,
Cardinals are 8-1 ATS last nine games as a road underdog.
Under Gannon, Arizona is 19-10 ATS as an underdog.
Arizona is 1-6 SU/2-5 ATS in last seven post-bye games.
Cardinals are 4-3 ATS in last 7 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Cowboys (3-4-1)
Dallas is 2-0-1 at home, scoring 40-40-44 points.
Dallas is 0-4 scoring less than 37 points.
Last five games, Cowboys are +4 in turnvers.
QB Prescott is 81-55-1 as an NFL starter.
Brian Schottenheimer is 3-4-1 as a head coach.
Cowboys are 17-9 ATS last 26 games as a home favorite.
Cowboys are 16-10 ATS last 26 games coming off a loss.
Last five games, Dallas scored 20 TD’s on 52 drives.
Over is 5-1 in their last six games.
Dallas is 6-7 ATS in last 13 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Arizona won seven of last eight series games.
Cardinals won/covered their last three visits to Dallas.
Under is 4-0-1 in last five meetings.
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Big Dawg’s NFL picks
Selections are posted on Saturday
2025 record: 10-14, minus 162
2024 record: 25-28-1, minus 174
2023 record: 30-23-1, plus 141
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Armadillo’s NFL picks
Selections are posted on Saturday
2025 record: 1-5, minus 135 mayfields
2024 record: 6-6, minus 18 largents ______________________________
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