Games are analyzed, all season long, right thru BCS title game
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2026 college football
Saturday’s games
North Carolina vs TCU (-7.5) (@ Ireland)
North Carolina
Last two years, North Carolina went 6-7/4-8 SU
UNC is 3-6 ATS in last nine non-league games.
Tar Heels have 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Tar Heels have 21 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Edwards has 13 career starts (Maryland/Wisconsin)
Tar Heels are 5-8-1 ATS last 14 games as an underdog.
Tar Heels are 1-7 ATS in last eight games vs Big X teams.
TCU
Last two years, TCU went 9-4/9-4
Under Dykes, Horned Frogs are 9-6 ATS in non-league games.
TCU has 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Horned Frogs have 93 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Craig started 11 games at Harvard last year.
Under Dykes, TCU is 19-16-1 ATS as a favorite.
TCU is 5-2 ATS in last seven games vs ACC teams.
TCU (-3.5) won 48-14 at North Carolina last year.
Total yardage was 542-222, TCU.
San Jose State @ USC (-38.5)
San Jose State
Spartans finished over .500 three of last four years (3-9 LY)
San Jose has 2 starters back on offense, 1 on defense.
Spartans have only 38 starts returning on offensive line.
Senior QB Weaver started two games at Hawai’i last year.
In his career, Niumatalolo is 36-22 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Niumatalolo, Spartans are 7-3 ATS in non-league games.
Spartans were minus-13 in turnovers LY (+20 from ’22-’24)
USC (10-3)
Under Riley, USC is 35-18 SU, 24-28-1 ATS
USC has 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Trojans have 79 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Maiava threw for 3,711 yards last season.
Under Riley, USC is 14-9 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Riley, USC is 10-5-1 ATS in non-conference games.
Last three years, USC was minus-2 in turnovers (+22 in 2022)
USC won last two meetings, 30-7/56-28 (1-1 ATS)
NC State @ Virginia (-5.5)
NC State
NC State had a winning season five of last six years.
Last three years, Wolfpack 15-10 ATS in ACC games.
NC State has 6 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Wolfpack has 67 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Bailey has 22 career starts.
Last five years, Wolfpack is 5-10 ATS as a road underdog.
In his career, coach Doeren is 14-23-2 ATS as a road underdog.
Virginia
Virginia was 11-3 LY, after three straight losing seasons.
Cavaliers were +7 in turnovers LY, after being minus in TO’s the previous six years.
Cavaliers have 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Cavaliers have 165 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Pribula started 10 games at Missouri last year.
Last two years, Virginia is 6-4 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Elliott, Cavaliers are 21-12 ATS in ACC games.
NC State won last three meetings scoring 33 ppg.
Wolfpack won their last three visits to Charlottesville.
Over is 3-1 in last four games.
Jacksonville State @ North Dakota State (-6)
Jacksonville State
In three years at I-A level, Gamecocks were 9-4/9-5/9-5
Jax State was +24 in turnovers in those three years.
Jax State has 4 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
Gamecocks have 114 starts back on OL, mostly on lower levels.
Junior QB Creel started nine games last year.
Last three years, Jax State is 3-6 ATS as a road underdog.
Last three years, Gamecocks were 7-7-1 ATS in non-conference games.
North Dakota State
This is North Dakota State’s first year at the I-A level.
Last ten years, Bison were 127-17 SU.
Jax State has 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
Bison has 41 starts back on offensive line.
Senior QB Hayes is a first-time starter (threw 44 passes LY)
Last three years, North Dakota State is 13-9 ATS as a home favorite.
Coach Polasek is 26-3 SU in two years at North Dakota State
These teams last met in 2016, for the I-AA national title.
Sacramento State @ Eastern Michigan (-9.5)
This is Sac State’s first game as a I-A team.
Hornets didn’t make the I-AA playoffs the last two years.
Eagles have 2 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Eagles have 20 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Snyder started 3 games at Fresno State LY.
Last three years, Hornets are 5-7 ATS as a road underdog.
Sac State is 6-1 ATS in last seven games vs I-A teams.
Eastern Michigan
Eagles have had three straight losing seasons.
Last four years, EMU is 18-14 ATS in MAC games.
Eagles have 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Eagles have 26 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Kim started 12 games last year.
Since 2019, EMU is 7-14 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Creighton, Eagles are 19-27 ATS as a favorite.
These teams have never played each other.
Hawai’i @ Stanford (-6)
Hawai’i
Hawai’i was 9-4 LY, its first winning year since 2020.
Under Chang, Rainbows are 9-10-1 ATS in non-league games.
Hawai’i has 4 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
Rainbows have 35 starts back on offensive line.
QB Alejado started 11 games last year.
Last three years, Rainbows are 5-9 ATS as a road underdog.
Last four years, Hawai’i is minus-29 in turnovers.
Stanford
Stanford has had five straight losing seasons.
New coach Pritchard was a QB coach in NFL the last 3 years.
Cardinal has 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Stanford has 120 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Warren started 12 games at Michigan in 2024.
Since 2020, Stanford is 0-7 ATS as a home favorite.
Stanford is 7-17 ATS in last 24 non-conference games.
These teams split two games over the last three years.
New Mexico State @ Florida State (-31.5)
New Mexico State
Last two years, Aggies were 3-9/4-8 SU
Last three years, Aggies are 23-17-1 ATS
NM State has 4 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
Aggies have 102 starts back on OL, only 36 at I-A level.
Junior QB Hedden started 20 games at I-AA Furman.
Since 2021, NM State is 16-14-1 ATS as a road underdog.
In his career, coach Sanchez is 22-17 ATS as a road underdog.
Florida State
Last two years, Florida State went 2-10/5-7 SU.
Seminoles are 12-19-1 ATS in last 32 non-league games.
FSU has 5 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Seminoles have 107 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Daniels started 25 games at Stanford/Auburn.
Under Norvell, Seminoles are 11-11-1 ATS in non-league games.
In his career, Norvell is 28-25 ATS as a home favorite.
These teams haven’t met since 1964.
Memphis @ UNLV (-3.5)
Memphis
Last ten years, Tigers are 88-41 SU
New coach Huff was 39-25 at Marshall/Southern Miss.
Memphis has 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Tigers have 90 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Stokes started 18 games at D-2 Western Florida.
Last ten years, Memphis is 5-10-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Last two years, Memphis is 7-3 ATS in non-conference games.
UNLV
Last three years, UNLV is 9-5/11-3/10-4 SU
Last four years, Rebels are +35 in turnovers.
UNLV has 4 starters back on offense, 3 on defense.
Rebels have 59 starts returning on offensive line.
Senior QB Colandrea started 8 games at Auburn LY.
Last three years, Rebels are 7-8 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Mullen is 35-28-1 ATS as a home favorite.
These teams haven’t met before.
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